D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser says modeling the city has done shows the District could see between 93,000 cumulative coronavirus infections and 220 deaths on the low end to more than 1,000 deaths on the high end before the pandemic subsides. She also said the peak in possible infections and the need for hospital beds will come in late June or early July, later than initially expected.

Bowser presented the estimates in a somber briefing to D.C. councilmembers—two who appeared alongside her, the others by video—at the D.C. Armory Friday. She said the estimates were drawn from the COVID-19 Hospital Impact Model for Epidemics, which was developed by Penn Medicine. They are significantly higher than another model—IHME—that was considered, which put the peak of infections in mid-April and expected overall deaths at just over 200.

“Its limitation is that it overestimates the impact of the social distancing strategies,” said LaQuandra Nesbitt, director of the D.C. Department of Health, about the IHME model. “When we talk about flattening the curve, it creates a long tail and shifts when your peak will occur. It assumes that every state will have a peak in April and then it will be over. That is not the impression… most state leaders assume will happen.”

Nesbitt stressed that every model will have its limits, and the CHIME model D.C. is following “overestimates the amount of contact individuals will have with each other,” further spreading the disease. But she and Bowser said they wanted estimates to be realistic, not rosy.

“We pray it’s wrong. We do,” said Bowser of the modeling she is relying on. “The CHIME model we think represents what we’re seeing on the ground. That’s what we base our need on. We’re using the best modeling… and this is what is being spit out.”

Speaking on The Kojo Nnamdi Show’s Politics Hour on Friday, Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam put the estimated peak for the commonwealth earlier, suggesting that it will be in May. But he also noted that there are still a lot of unknowns, and he said it’s still unclear what the curve of cases will look like in our region.

As of Friday, D.C. had recorded 757 positive coronavirus cases and 15 deaths. And while testing has ramped up from 300 to 4,000 tests per one million people, the testing done by public and private labs and healthcare providers remains limited to at-risk groups, first responders and healthcare workers—and largely only when people from those groups start showing symptoms.

D.C.’s population is just over 710,000 people, meaning that if Bowser’s estimates hold up, nearly one in seven residents will become infected with COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, before the pandemic ends.

According to Bowser, as infections ramp up, so too will the need for hospital beds. At its peak in late June, the city will need 2,992 acute care beds, 1,806 more than are available. It will also need 2,792 ICU beds (2,705 more than currently exist), and 1,453 ventilators (1,030 more than what the city has now).

All told, during a “medical surge” caused by the coronavirus, D.C. will need to have access to more than 5,600 hospital beds, some 3,600 more than are currently available at the seven hospitals serving the city. Bowser said that to get to the total number of beds needed, hospitals will delay elective surgeries, maximize hospital space, reopen shuttered facilities, and add news beds in non-medical facilities.

“We’ve assessed 39 different facilities,” said Chris Geldert, director of the D.C. Department of Public Works, speaking of what steps the city has taken to find space for hospital beds. “We’ve been to just about every [university] campus in the city. We’re not limiting ourselves to anything.”

Bowser also said that what she’s seeing makes her think that schools will not re-open on April 27 as is currently planned. Virginia, on the other hand, has already said it will not reopen schools this academic year.

“I don’t think what we’ve seen suggests we’ll open schools on April 27,” she said. “I can say we’re not going to open on April 27.”

But Bowser also tried to strike an optimistic tone, saying the city was relying on challenging models in order to prepare the hospital resources that could be needed. And she encouraged residents to remain at home as much as possible, knowing that the pandemic would eventually come to an end.

“This is certainly a global pandemic of proportions that none of us could have predicted, but we will get through this, we will get through the other side of this, and we will get back to life in our beautiful thriving city,” she said. “Stay home, everybody.”

This story originally appeared on WAMU.