This story was updated May 5 at 11:55 a.m.

Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam said it’s possible the state’s economy could begin reopening in less than two weeks, making him the first leader in the region to announce a specific target date for such a move.

“We can start to move into a new phase of our response, but at the same time, I want to make it very clear, this virus is still here,” he said at a press briefing Monday.

Northam did extend his order closing non-essential businesses, which was set to expire May 8. But he said he expects they could start to open in some capacity on May 15, under the first phase of his plan to reopen the Commonwealth.

“We are not entering Phase 1 today, nor this week,” he said, “But based on the data, I expect we may be able to enter it as soon as next week.”

His plan is far from a return to business as usual. The first phase would ease restrictions on hair salons, gyms, places of worship, and restaurants.

“It means you can go out to eat again,” Northam said, “but restaurants will use less of their seating to spread people out more.”

Workers will need to wear face coverings and practice social distancing. Larger gatherings would still be banned. Businesses would be also encouraged to continue to allow teleworking. Northam said he expects this phase could last for about three weeks.

The governor had already allowed non-elective procedures to resume last Friday.

‘Working As Closely As We Can’

Virginia’s possible reopening might be a case of “last in, first out.” Northam was slower than other Washington-area leaders to close businesses like bars and restaurants back in March.

Leaders from Virginia, Maryland and D.C. have talked often about the importance of regional cooperation in a place where people routinely move among all three jurisdictions. And Northam says they continue to talk and work together.

“Each state has their own situation, their own challenges,” Northam said at the Monday briefing, “We’re probably not going to do everything on the exact day, but we’re working as closely as we can. We want to be as consistent as we can with our neighboring states.”

Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) talked about regional coordination in reopening during an appearance on Comedy Central’s The Daily Show last week.

“We’re all working in conjunction with another to make sure that we’re sort of on the same page because many of our people live in one jurisdiction, work in another and they travel back and forth on the same Metro system,” he said, “If somebody opens up all the bars and restaurants, everybody from our state will go over there and bring it back. It’s gotta be done in a smart way.”

The Path To Reopening

After more than a month living under virtual lockdown, and with the weather getting nicer by the day, some are suffering from “quarantine fatigue.” Protesters have been clamoring for economies to reopen, and both Hogan and Northam have faced lawsuits related to that push.

In planning out the timing of reopening, local leaders say they are closely monitoring public health data and following guidelines from the White House coronavirus task force. That list of requirements includes a 14-day decline in reported positive cases; increased capacity for testing and contact tracing; enough hospital beds to handle a surge in patients; and sufficient personal protective equipment.

Hospitals in Virginia are under capacity, they are not reporting shortages of PPE, according to data Northam cited on Monday. He has also announced plans to hire some 1,000 contact tracers.

The number of daily new cases has not been declining, but the growth rate appears to be slowing, Northam said. Virginia lagged behind much of the country on testing but has recently upped its capacity, testing 6,800 people on May 2 compared to 3,200 a week prior. Tests peaked on May 1 at nearly 15,000 — though this figure remains an outlier.

The Commonwealth has yet to attain Northam’s goal of conducting 10,000 tests every day.

Meanwhile, D.C.’s stay-at-home order is set to expire on May 15, but Department of Public Health Director LaQuandra Nesbitt has said “opening non-essential business before May 25th will most likely create a second, larger peak of infections.”

She’s said D.C. could then begin to ease restrictions in late May or early June, but more pessimistic scenarios have the city reopening in late June or early July. D.C. health officials also say they don’t yet have enough N95 masks to keep up with the demand, and the city has not reached the 75% acute-care bed capacity it would need to consider lifting restrictions.

Maryland says it is “ahead of schedule” on plans to expand hospital capacity by 6,000 beds. Hospitalizations in the state had been trending downward for three days, but numbers ticked up again Monday.

Hogan said he wants to see 14 days of decline in new cases, though he’s also added that a one day spike would not necessarily mean going back to square one.

This story was updated to clarify information on the number of daily tests conducted in Virginia.