Most residents of D.C., Maryland and Virginia don’t plan to travel for Thanksgiving this year as coronavirus cases soar and health officials warn against large holiday gatherings, a new survey shows.

The survey comes from AAA, which sampled more than 2,400 residents across D.C., Maryland and Virginia. In the District, 83% of people surveyed said they would not travel, with 65% citing the pandemic as their reason. Another 35% said they were not planning to travel regardless.

The survey found 84% of Virginia residents do not plan to travel, though only 41% said it was because of COVID-19. And in Maryland, 89% say they won’t travel, half because of the pandemic.

“Given the recent surge in COVID-19 and the strong urging of public health officials for everyone to stay home for the holiday, the Thanksgiving travel landscape continues to change,” said AAA Mid-Atlantic spokesperson John Townsend in a news release.

The AAA survey — conducted between Nov. 12 and 13 — does not define “travel,” so it may not account for people who plan to travel short distances within the region. It’s also unclear how many people plan to celebrate the holiday with other local residents outside their household.

The Washington region has been setting records for new reported coronavirus cases. All three local jurisdictions are seeing increases in their seven-day rolling averages of new cases, a metric that helps account for one-off spikes in the daily case tally. Virginia’s rolling average is now 2,262, nearly double a late May peak of 1,195, according to data from the Virginia Department of Health.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention last week urged people to avoid Thanksgiving travel. Local officials and health experts have also stressed that celebrating Thanksgiving only with people in your household is the safest move.

Roughly 90% of AAA survey respondents said traveling right now is a risk.

In mid-October, AAA predicted as many as 1.2 million D.C.-area residents would travel for Thanksgiving, a 13.7% drop from last year, and the largest single-year dip since 2008. But the organization now expects the number of travelers may be even lower, as the pandemic has worsened.

Of the D.C. residents who did still plan to travel, 64% planned to drive, 26% planned to fly and 10% planned to use another method of transportation, like a bus or train.

Townsend, the AAA spokesman, says “Thanksgiving is typically a driving holiday,” but notes that, because of the pandemic, more people have decided to travel by car so they can have “greater control over their environment and the ability to modify plans at the last minute.”

The region’s transportation hubs are taking a variety of measures to keep people safe. Union Station, Dulles International Airport and Reagan National Airport require travelers to wear face masks and have placed social distancing stickers on the floor. Neither airport, however, has a coronavirus testing site, unlike some others across the country.

Dr. Amanda Castle, an epidemiologist at George Washington University, previously told DCist/WAMU she thinks colder weather and pandemic fatigue are to blame for the recent surge in cases, both regionally and nationally. She anticipates a spike in infections after Thanksgiving that could be worse than spikes after Memorial Day and July 4.

“The problem is that we’re starting at a higher baseline,” Castle said. “The overall number of cases, the spread, and the transmission could be much greater than it was over the summer in our area if people decide to get together.”

Too often, Castel says, friends and family get together and “let your guard down and stop practicing the things that we know can prevent transmission.”