Metro will continue to run trains on reduced schedules but will aim to increase the number of available trains in the coming weeks.

Commuters can continue to expect abbreviated service through at least Nov. 15, which means riders will be dealing with infrequent service for at least a month from the start of the major service disruption. The announcement came at Thursday’s Metro board meeting where the public heard about service, the investigation into the 7000-series train derailment and ridership projections for next year.

On Oct. 17, Metro pulled 60% of its 1,200-car fleet after the Washington Metrorail Safety Commission ordered the transit agency to remove all of its 7000-series trains. It was in response to the Oct. 12 derailment, when a Blue Line train partially slipped off the tracks near Arlington Cemetery station. Wheels on one axle of that train had moved too far apart, contributing to the derailment.

Trains on the Red Line will continue to operate every 15 to 20 minutes, while trains on the Orange, Blue, Silver, Green, and Yellow lines will run every 30 to 40 minutes.

Officials do not have a timeline for when the 7000-series trains will return to service but are submitting a “mitigation and fix” plan to the Safety Commission this week. If approved, it would take at least two weeks to put the plan in place.

“It has been a difficult few weeks for those who rely on transit in the region, and we thank our customers for their continued patience as we work to increase service as quickly as we can with safety being our top priority,” Metro General Manager Paul J. Wiedefeld said in a statement.

In the meantime, the transit agency says it is working to increase the number of trains currently operating to 50, up from 31, by running 2000, 3000, and 6000-series railcars. Officials say it will take at least two weeks to add those trains, which first need to be inspected. Metro is temporarily shutting down construction on the Red Line stations at Shady Grove and Rockville in order to move five older train sets out of the Shady Grove yard so they can be put into service.

Metro would first use eight extra trains to target peak times, mostly in the evening rush hour on the Red and Green lines. After that, it hopes to add five trains to increase frequencies to every 12-15 minutes on the Red Line and every 20-30 minutes on the Green and Yellow lines. Service in the core downtown areas would see trains every 10-15 minutes.

Metro is still charging customers peak fare prices despite less-than-stellar service levels during peak hours. Many riders have called for reduced pricing and eliminating peak fares during the outage, which board member Lucinda Babers of D.C. also brought up.

“Should we still be charging peak fares without peak service?” she asked the board. “People want to know what the board is doing.”

Board chair Paul Smedberg of Virginia says it’s something that should “likely be on the table” for a board discussion. The board sets fare policy, but Metro also has said it is a complicated process to change fares in the backend of their systems.

Metro Safety Office Provides Derailment, 7000-Series Train Update

Metro officials say they are close to submitting a testing and inspection plan to the Metrorail Safety Commission, that would allow them to bring back the 7000-series trains.

It would take at least two weeks to execute the plan. Wiedefeld didn’t want to put an estimated date as to when the trains could return. He said he wants to make sure the process is done right and safely instead of quickly.

Meanwhile, Smedberg pressed Wiedefeld on whether he knew about the wheel issues. Earlier this week, the Metrorail Safety Commission said there were 50-plus instances of wheels out of alignment and Metro had even put a train with two wheel defects back on the tracks on October 17.

Smedberg said he’s heard from stakeholders that they find it hard to believe Wiedefeld wouldn’t do anything about the issue if he knew about it.

Wiedefeld said he did not know about the issues.

But that sentiment is at odds with a 2016 pamphlet that Wiedefeld distributed to managers at the time: “When it comes to safety, there is no excuse. ‘They didn’t tell me’ and ‘We’ve always done it that way’ are excuses that don’t fly any longer at Metro.”

Some riders have called for Wiedefeld’s firing, though the agency head seems to still have support from elected leaders, Metro’s board, and its advisory committees.

Accessibility Advisory Committee Chair Phil Posner says no one should resign.

“Just keep doing the great job you’ve been doing,” he said during his presentation.

Riders Advisory Council Chair Brian Meyer thanked the board for “what you do to keep the system safe for all, especially over the past month or two.” Metro’s most critical advisory member was pushed out from the council last year.

Smedberg asked who should be held accountable for not reporting the issues, but Wiedefeld says the ongoing National Transportation Safety Board investigation will seek an answer to that.

And new federal representative to the board Sarah Kline asked why it took Metro more than two weeks to inspect all 748 trains, which turned up at least 20 wheel issues.

Chief Safety Officer Theresa Impastato says the cars have to be cleaned first so they can find leaks or other issues. Then, they have to be hoisted over an inspection pit, of which there are few available. Then crews go over a detailed checklist, so the process does take time, she said.

Impastato also said she’s unsure how long the ongoing NTSB investigation will take. In the past, they have taken up to 24 months, she said, but they release information as they learn it.

Board Looking Ahead To Next Year’s Budget, With Limited Ridership

Metro is not expecting riders to return to pre-pandemic levels until fiscal year 2025, a year later than previously estimated.

The board got its first look at the projections as it kicks off next year’s budget cycle. The board will deliberate over service levels, fare prices, and more before a budget vote next spring. The new changes would go into effect in July 2022.

Metro is expecting anywhere from 53% to 55% of ridership in the next fiscal year, July 2022 to June 2023, compared to pre-pandemic levels.

Metro Chief Financial Officer Dennis Anosike says Metro created a regular and more conservative ridership estimate largely because workers have not returned to the office as quickly as some regional surveys had anticipated. The rise of the Delta variant in late summer caused many plans to change.

Vaccine acceptance rates, tourism, telework, and other factors are also driving ridership predictions.

The latest Greater Washington Partnership survey, which takes the pulse of the region’s big businesses, now predicts most workers getting back to the office next summer.

But ridership has grown faster than Metro predicted last year. Metro conservatively estimated about seven to eight million trips a month, but saw 11 and 12 million rides a month in August and September, respectively. That was before the 7000-series trains were removed from service.

While the ridership outpaced projections, it is still two-thirds below pre-pandemic levels.

Next year, Metro will again rely on a big chunk of federal money, $705 million, to bridge their budget gap. After that, only about $95 million of the federal COVID relief money remains and will run out in 2024.

And that is going to be a big problem if ridership doesn’t return. It could mean cutting service, raising fares, or instituting other measures to meet budget.

Last year, Metro proposed cutting weekend train service, shuttering nearly 20 stations, and other measures to save money, but federal COVID relief funds prevented the worst of the cuts.