This Thanksgiving marks the first large holiday where many family members, young and old alike, are at least partially vaccinated against COVID-19, and analysts are predicting travel to reach near a pre-pandemic level.

Auto club AAA says Thanksgiving travel could see a 13% rise compared to the same time last year when many were still wary of traveling, due to an upswing in COVID-19 cases . With 79% of the population 12 and older having at least one dose of the vaccine, AAA predicts travel volumes just 5% short of what they were in 2019.

This time last year, the U.S. was reporting about 180,000 new COVID cases a day. The CDC is forecasting about 67,000 cases a day by Thanksgiving.

“This Thanksgiving, travel will look a lot different than last year,” Paula Twidale, senior vice president of AAA Travel said in a release. “Now that the borders are open and new health and safety guidelines are in place, travel is once again high on the list for Americans who are ready to reunite with their loved ones for the holiday.”

AAA says 48 million Americans will travel by car, four million by air, and one million by bus or train.

There is one potential wrinkle for family travel – children in the 5-11 age range were just approved to get vaccinated in early November. Most have received just one dose, and therefore won’t be fully vaccinated until early December. This could play a role in the calculus of family travel.

Here’s what you need to know locally.

Traffic Will Return 

Nearly 90% of people plan to travel by car this Thanksgiving.

Traffic analysts at INRIX predict drivers will see the worst congestion as commuters leave work early Wednesday and mix with holiday travelers. 

The worst area in our region will be on I-95 south between the Beltway and Woodbridge on Wednesday afternoon from 2-4 p.m. Traffic will be 230% above normal volume.

Gas Prices At Eight-Year High 

Gas prices have surged in recent months, reaching an eight-year high last week when the average cost of gas hovered around $3.60 a gallon in the D.C. region, according to GasBuddy. It’s come down in recent days and now is about $3.49 a gallon.

Still, gas was about $2.20 a gallon last year, meaning a fill-up on a 15-gallon tank will cost $19.35 more this year.

“With President Biden still mulling over options to help push gas prices down, we could continue to see some volatility in oil prices,” says Patrick DeHaan, an analyst with GasBuddy. “I don’t immediately see a large decline or surge coming in the run up to Thanksgiving, but U.S. gasoline demand does remain strong.”

But the high price of gas is not likely to change people’s minds about traveling.

“It would stand to reason that those who missed the annual gathering last year may be even more motivated than usual to make the trip, despite the additional expense of filling up,” Ragina Ali, public and government affairs manager for AAA Mid-Atlantic, said in a statement.

Airports Will See Big Increase Over Last Year

Air travel is set to boom 80% over last year, according to AAA.

Scott Johnson, Federal Security Director for the TSA at Reagan National Airport says daily traffic has rebounded to about 30,000 travelers a day. On average, DCA had about 40,000 travelers a day, pre-pandemic.

“We don’t know what the passenger loads will be for Thanksgiving, but we’re ready,” Johnson said. “We’re staffed for it.”

Analysts expect Thanksgiving week travel will only be about 6% shy of 2019 sales. AAA says the average lowest airfare is 27.3% less than last year coming in at $132.

Travelers flying out of DCA will run into a new security procedure if they’re flying American, Delta, United or JetBlue. Terminals B and C have new security screening halls that opened earlier this month. You can learn about how to navigate them here.

Meanwhile, travelers who may have expected to use the new Silver Line extension to take the train to Dulles International Airport may have to wait a bit longer as it’s not quite ready yet.  However, there has been advancement on the project – after several delays, the extension has finally reached substantial completion on construction. So, while riders won’t be able to ride to Dulles this year, they’ll likely be able to sometime next spring.

At BWI Thurgood Marshall Airport, spokesperson Jonathan Dean says airline seat capacity for the holiday time is down between 15-20% compared to this time in 2019.

“But we do expect to see strong passenger traffic,” Dean said. “Travelers should give themselves plenty of time for parking, airline ticketing, and the TSA security screening process.”

And here’s one tip if you’re coming during a busy time: “If you’re coming to BWI Marshall to pick up family or friends, consider using the Upper Level, or Departures Level, to pick up your passengers. That would help you avoid the Lower Level roadway, which can be congested, particularly in the late afternoon or evening hours,” Dean said.

Masks are still required in airports, on public transit, in train stations, and other public transportation hubs. TSA has extended the mask mandate through at least January 18, 2022.

Metro Delays Mean Plan Ahead

For those that may have not used Metrorail much during the pandemic, the system is hobbled because of the sidelining of Metro’s largest fleet, the 7000-series trains. They’re being inspected for wheel issues after an October derailment.

Service is currently at every 12 minutes on the Red Line, every 20 minutes on the Green and Yellow lines, and every 24 minutes on the Blue, Orange, and Silver lines. It is not expected to improve significantly this month.

Metro spokesperson Kristie Swink Benson says the agency will keep people posted about service.

“While we can’t be specific about timelines, we will assess where we are with testing and restoration plans before Thanksgiving,” Swink Benson said. “We want to make sure that we are able to provide customers with a look ahead so that they can plan and know what to expect for December.”

Check rail departure times at Metro’s website or use an app like MetroHero which gives real-time information about where trains are.

This story was updated to reflect this week’s Metro service levels and gas prices.