Chesapeake Bay states and the federal government have spent billions of dollars working to clean up the polluted estuary, but won’t meet a 2025 deadline for restoring the bay, unless they ramp up investment and work harder to curb pollution from development and agriculture, according to a new analysis from the Chesapeake Bay Foundation.

More than a decade ago, the six states plus D.C. in the Chesapeake watershed agreed to a blueprint with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, to drastically cut pollution flowing into the bay from sewage systems, urban runoff, farms, and other sources by 2025.

“Without an acceleration, the blueprint sadly will be another failed effort to restore this national treasure,” said Alison Prost, with the Chesapeake Bay Foundation, during a press conference on Wednesday.

Previous cleanup efforts date back to the early 1980s — but four separate agreements signed in 1983, 1987, 1992, and 2000 all failed to produce meaningful results. The latest agreement, signed in 2010, was supposed to be different because it included pollution limits enforceable by the EPA.

In the report released Wednesday, the Chesapeake Bay Foundation examined the progress of Maryland, Virginia, and Pennsylvania — the three states that are responsible for 90% of pollution in the watershed. (Tributaries also carry pollution into the bay from D.C., West Virginia, New York, and Delaware).

Maryland and Virginia are both mostly on track overall, though they are off-track in reducing pollution from urban and suburban stormwater runoff and from agriculture. Pennsylvania — whose Susquehanna River is the Chesapeake’s largest tributary — is not on track and “significantly behind” according to the CBF report.

Prost said the blueprint is working to cut pollution — even if it’s not happening fast enough — and it’s not too late to meet the deadline.  “It can be an example of clean water across the country, but for that to happen, the trajectory has to change.”

Across the watershed, one of the largest obstacles to restoring the bay is continued development. According to the CBF, the area experienced a net loss of almost 270,000 acres of forest between 2014 and 2018. That’s close to three times the size of D.C., Richmond, Annapolis and Harrisburg combined. Throughout the watershed, 25,000 acres are urbanized each year, according to the report — 10,00o acres from forests and 15,000 from other open land.

While forests naturally absorb and filter rainwater before slowly releasing it into waterways, urban landscapes cause stormwater to rush into the nearest tributary, carrying with it pollution from roads, parking lots and lawns.

Another reason for the limited progress, according to the CBF, is that the EPA has failed to enforce the cleanup plan. In Sept. 2020, the CBF and attorneys general in D.C., Maryland, Virginia and Delaware filed suit against the EPA for not enforcing the cleanup; the lawsuit is still pending.

The only sector where all three states are on track is wastewater — states have made significant progress by upgrading sewage treatment plants. In Maryland 64 out of 67 of the largest plants in the state have gotten upgrades. In Virginia state legislation has required upgrades at some plants and provided funding for low-income residents to upgrade individual home septic systems.

To assess states’ progress, the CBF used a the scientific model developed by the EPA’s Chesapeake Bay Program to estimate pollution reductions states made between 2009 and 2020, and also looked at whether states were taking the actions they committed to as part of the cleanup blueprint.

In Pennsylvania, Department of Environmental Protection Secretary Patrick McDonnell disputed the assertion that the state would not meet its 2025 targets, pointing to a newly updated implementation plan. “With all counties on board and unprecedented progress underway, Pennsylvania is at an exciting turning point in improving local water quality in the watershed,” McDonnell said in a statement. However, he acknowledged the state still faces a $324.2 million funding gap to be able to put the plan into action.

In Virginia, Secretary of Natural and Historic Resources Ann Jennings lauded the state’s progress, and the increased funding for the Chesapeake in Gov. Ralph Northam’s latest budget. “Gov. Northam’s newly-proposed budget provides historic investments in the Chesapeake Bay including, for the first time, full funding to help farmers install conservation measures that reduce runoff pollution,” Jennings said in a statement.

In Maryland, Secretary of the Environment Ben Grumbles similarly praised recent investments.

“Maryland has made steady progress over the last seven years with dramatic actions and investments, like the record $6.5 billion in Gov. Hogan’s budgets, to keep on track with our Chesapeake Bay cleanup goal but more actions and partnerships are needed throughout the entire watershed,” Grumbles said in a statement.