The Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade left many Americans confused about whether they could still access abortion services — particularly in Virginia, where the governor announced his plan to pursue a 15-week ban on Friday morning, shortly after Roe fell.

“I’m proud to be a pro-life Governor and plan to take every action I can to protect life,” Youngkin wrote in a statement on Friday.

One clinic in Falls Church said they fielded calls throughout Friday from people confused about whether they could still legally get an abortion in the state.

It is still legal to get an abortion in Virginia but the state’s divided politics mean it’s a precarious right. The Democratic-controlled suburbs of Northern Virginia are ultimately at the mercy of the capitol in Richmond.

Here’s what you need to know:

Where do abortion rights stand in Virginia right now? 

Abortion is legal through the second trimester of pregnancy in Virginia. In the third trimester, it is lawful with some significant caveats: the pregnant person’s life or their physical or mental health must be at risk, which can only be determined by their doctor and two consulting doctors. Minors must have parental consent to get an abortion.

Low-income patients on Medicaid can only use public funding for the procedure if the patient’s life or health is at serious risk, if the pregnancy is a result of from rape or incest and they report the incident, or if the fetus has “a documented incapacitating abnormality,” according to the Virginia Department of Health.

Virginians seeking abortions early in their pregnancies can receive abortion medication through the mail after a telehealth appointment, an option that became available last October.

Access, however, is patchy. According to the Guttmacher Institute, 93% of Virginia counties had no providers that performed the procedure in 2017.

Has it always been this way?

The short answer: no. During the 2010s, Republican lawmakers passed a slew of restrictive laws, including a 24-hour waiting period, a requirement that patients undergo an ultrasound and counseling first, and zoning regulations that forced some reproductive health providers to close.

Democrats managed to shift the landscape in 2020 when they controlled both chambers of the General Assembly and the governor’s mansion. They rolled back the 24-hour waiting period and instituted a cumbersome requirement that abortion providers be designated as hospitals. This was not, however, without conservative pushback. Republicans took aim at a Democratic bill meant to reduce some barriers to the procedure, including removing the need for an ultrasound beforehand and limiting the number of doctors needed to co-sign on a third trimester abortion to one. National right-wing figures seized on the proposed legislation, characterizing it as “legalizing infanticide.”

What changes are on the table after Friday’s ruling? 

Shortly after the Roe decision came out on Friday, Youngkin said he had asked four anti-abortion state lawmakers to draft the legislation (including one who is an OB-GYN) and to introduce it when the General Assembly convenes in January 2023.

Throughout his campaign, Youngkin purposefully stayed away from discussing abortion explicitly. Last summer, a video leaked of then candidate Youngkin responding to the question of whether he would defund Planned Parenthood. In the clip, he said “in this campaign, I can’t. When I’m governor and I have a majority in the House, we can start going on offense. But as a campaign topic, sadly, that in fact won’t win my independent votes that I have to get.”

Youngkin’s push for a 15-week ban is a significant step in that “offense” direction, but it’s likely to face an uphill battle in Richmond, where political power is divided. According to the Washington Post, Youngkin said a 20-week ban might be necessary to strike an agreement in the legislature, where Democrats control the Senate and Republicans control the House. The proposed legislation would include narrow exceptions for rape, incest, and cases where the patient’s life is at risk, Youngkin told the Post. It would be similar to the Mississippi legislation that the Supreme Court ended Roe by upholding.

What are the political dynamics in Richmond surrounding abortion? 

To pass a 15-week ban, Youngkin will need to get the bill through both chambers of a divided General Assembly.

Just weeks ago, Youngkin tried and failed to add an amendment to the state’s two-year budget bill that would prevent state funds from paying for abortions in cases of fetal anomalies (this is currently one of the few exceptions to the commonwealth’s ban on using public money to pay for the procedure). Critics said the move was a “direct attack on poor pregnant people.” The amendment passed the House but failed in the Senate.

With Democrats holding a slim 21-19 majority in the Senate, Sen. Joe Morrissey, a Catholic Democrat who opposes abortion, will be a key swing vote for the future of abortion in the commonwealth. In the case of a 20-20 tie, anti-abortion Lieutenant Gov. Winsome Sears would cast the deciding vote.

Morrissey has said that he would consider limits on abortions after about five months (or 20 weeks), although he voted against Youngkin’s Medicaid-related amendment earlier this month. He’s a bit of a political wildcard whose vote could be hard to predict. While his track record on criminal justice legislation aligns with his party, he’s described himself as a “moderate” on abortion. He recently told the Virginia Mercury that while he personally opposes abortion, he does not think a “woman should be jailed” for having one.

Virginia holds elections in off-off years so Morrissey and other state legislators are not up for reelection until 2023. In the primary he’s facing Lashrecse Aird, a former House delegate who supports abortion rights.

Stephen Farnsworth, a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington, said only Morrissey knows how Morrissey will vote, but thinks its unlikely that the Senate Democratic majority will go along with Youngkin’s proposal to restrict abortion.

Where do residents stand on abortion and what does that mean for elections this fall? 

According to 2022 polling from Christopher Newport University, a majority of Virginia voters oppose a six week ban (58% to 33%) as well as an ultrasound requirement (57% to  36%.) A recent May 2022 poll from Roanoke College determined that 88% of residents thought abortion should be legal under some or all circumstances, while 56% disagreed with the leaked draft opinion overturning Roe v. Wade. 

Youngkin has acknowledged that opinions on abortion run wide in Virginia. He wants to ban the procedure past the point where a “fetus feels pain,” (he claims that occurs at 15 weeks, which is not supported by scientific evidence) but seems willing to compromise with a 20-week ban if it’s necessary to get a bill through both houses. While abortion-rights Democrats say Youngkin’s proposal is out of touch with the reality of voters (some are using it as a fundraising appeal), other conservative lawmakers say he isn’t going far enough.

Actually nearly 70% of Virginians oppose new restrictions on abortion. Yet the Governor/party that professes to care about parental rights wants to take away the fundamental right to decide whether to even become a parent. https://t.co/dRrWXpMz0y

— Jennifer McClellan (@JennMcClellanVA) June 24, 2022

Farnsworth says abortion is likely to be a driving topic in both state and national upcoming elections.

“Virginia has steadily moved, politically speaking, away from the southern conservatism of most other Southern states,” he says. “But [there] are still very powerful conservative voices in Virginia politics that are likely to be more vocal going forward.”

There are three highly competitive congressional races on the ballot in Virginia this year in the 2nd, 7th, and 10th districts. In all three cases, Republican challengers are hoping to unseat Democrats in purple areas of the state.

Abortion rights have already surfaced as a factor in one local congressional race, in Virginia’s 7th District, which includes Prince William County. Axios Richmond reported on Monday that Yesli Vega, the Republican nominee hoping to unseat Democrat Abigail Spanberger, doubted the possibility that pregnancy can result from rape. Vega is a Prince William County supervisor and sheriff’s deputy.

“As voters start to get to know the new Republican nominee, the comments really represent a campaign…starting off on the wrong foot,” Farnsworth says. “Cultural warriors tend not to do well with suburban voters.”

What are local leaders in Northern Virginia saying about the fall of Roe?

Northern Virginia elected officials are by and large supportive of abortion rights.

Loudoun County Board of Supervisors Chairwoman Phyllis J. Randall tweeted: “Women will not stop having safe abortions. Poor women will stop having safe abortions.” Arlington County Board member Takis Karantonis also tweeted his support for abortion rights.

Chair of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors Jeff McKay says on Twitter his jurisdiction will continue to support abortion rights. McKay is already taking a few proactive steps, telling DCist he’s directing the Fairfax County Health Department to create a webpage to detail available reproductive health resources and facts on the current status of reproductive choice in the state.

McKay also said local law enforcement will protect Supreme Court justices, three of whom live in Fairfax, as well as protesters who have been demonstrating outside of justices’ homes in recent weeks. McKay previously refused Youngkin’s calls for Fairfax police to establish a perimeter around justices’s homes.

The Alexandria City Council will consider a nonbinding resolution that opposes any reproductive rights restrictions. It further asks the City Attorney to participate in potential litigation to protect abortion services, that the City Manager make it easier for a third clinic that offers abortion to open in the city, and for a budget proposal to help lower-income abortion seekers.

“What we are hoping to do now is make our position clear that abortion should be legal,” R. Kirk McPike, a councilmember who co-drafted the resolution, tells DCist/WAMU.

He expects the resolution to pass Tuesday, and for city officials to move forward with the Council’s requests.

Can localities do anything to protect or roll back abortion rights? 

Local officials don’t seem as interested in rolling back abortion access as they are in shoring it up. While local authorities can’t do much to change policy decisions from Richmond, they can do things like allocate funding for abortion services or refuse to cooperating with law enforcement investigations related to the procedure.

No one in Northern Virginia appears to have introduced any new legislation yet, but neighboring lawmakers offer some suggestions of what they could do: Montgomery County Executive Marc Elrich is trying to create a $1 million fund to support abortion access, while D.C. is interested in barring the city’s cooperation with civil cases targeting people seeking abortion or assisting those that do.

It’s not clear what enforcement of a 15-week abortion ban would look like in Virginia. The Texas abortion ban is enforced by civilians while Mississippi’s is enforced by the state. In any event, several top prosecutors in Northern Virginia already pledged not to prosecute people who seek or have abortions, including Parisa Dehghani-Tafti of Arlington County and the City of Falls Church, Bryan Porter of Alexandria, and Steve Descano of Fairfax County.

“As elected prosecutors, we have a responsibility to ensure that these limited resources are focused on efforts to prevent and address serious crimes, rather than enforcing abortion bans that divide our community, create untenable choices for patients and healthcare providers, and erode trust in the justice system,” says a letter signed by dozens of district attorneys.

Descano tells DCist/WAMU his office will also not cooperate with any law enforcement agency that seeks to criminalize people for seeking abortion — including those out-of-state. Lawmakers from states that have already banned abortion are exploring ways to disincentivize people from crossing state lines to get the medical procedure. Lawmakers in Missouri, for example, attempted to pass legislation allowing civilians to sue anyone supporting out of state travel for an abortion.

“I made the pledge so publicly because I want to disincentivize any law enforcement agency from even doing an investigation in Fairfax County,” he says.

Descano worries that Youngkin and Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares will try to strip the power of local prosecutors, as they have tried to do in the past.

Local officials, Descano suggested, could focus on ensuring that area governments aren’t sharing potentially incriminating data, even accidentally. He pointed to Fairfax’s Trust Policy, which prevents county cooperation with ICE, as a possible model.

Meanwhile, McPike of Alexandria says he’ll encourage the city manager to talk with their police department about enforcement of any abortion ban, should it come to that. “I would encourage the city manager to talk to our police about whether they should be arresting anyone that our local prosecutor will not pursue.”

Local abortion funds have been preparing for a long time, including by creating infrastructure to get people abortion, whether that’s in Virginia or out of state. They expect demand for their service to increase, whether it’s people needing help paying for the procedure itself or with logistics like childcare and transportation.

“Plug into existing networks, set up a recurring donation to your local abortion fund or practical support network. Money is going to be a big part of this future,” says Tannis Fuller, the executive director of the Blue Ridge Abortion Fund.

“Know that this is a long game.”