Billions of dollars have been spent over the past 40 years trying to clean up the Chesapeake Bay – the nation’s largest estuary. Recently, though, officials have acknowledged they likely won’t meet the deadline to restore the bay by 2025. While there have been big improvements in some types of pollution, others – especially from agriculture – continue unabated.

“When I was inaugurated as governor in January, it became clear to me that Virginia was not on track to meet its 2025 goals by 2025,” said Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) at a meeting among bay states earlier this month.

Environmental advocates and elected officials point to a number of reasons for not making the deadline, including lack of enforcement from state and federal regulators, and lack of sufficient funding in some states.

It wouldn’t be the first Chesapeake agreement to miss its deadline; the original cleanup agreement was signed by bay states and the Environmental Protection Agency in 1983, followed by similar pledges in 1987, 1992, and 2000. The latest agreement, signed in 2014, was supposed to be different because it included enforcement mechanisms, that allow the EPA to crack down on states that aren’t pulling their weight.

But advocates say the EPA hasn’t used its enforcement power – particularly during the Trump years, when the administration took a hands-off approach.

“We have a lot of great success with voluntary measures,” says Betsy Nicholas, executive director of the nonprofit Waterkeepers Chesapeake. “We have gotten where we can get with those. If we just throw more money at the problem, we’re never going to get there.”

Rather, Nicholas says, the EPA needs to force the states not meeting pollution reduction targets to take action. She compares it to speed limits – everyone goes over the limit on toll roads where there is not much enforcement. But on the highways and roads in D.C. with speed cameras doling out $100 tickets, the traffic is markedly slower.

Likewise, Nicholas says, “When we’re thinking about pollution, we have to have a real mechanism for enforcing the law.”

Nicholas and other advocates spoke at a press conference marking the 50th anniversary of the federal Clean Water Act, which is responsible for many of the improvements in water quality that the country has seen in the past half-century.

Eric Schaeffer, executive director of the nonprofit Environmental Integrity Project, said the Potomac River is a prime example. He used to spend time on the river before the Clean Water Act was passed, as a teenager growing up in the D.C. area. “I can tell you from personal experience, the Potomac River stank – it was eye watering. It was not unusual to see mats of dead fish covering the water, near the Tidal Basin especially.”

“It’s important to mark the progress. It’s equally important to talk about how far we have to go,” Schaeffer said, speaking at the press conference.

Elected officials, meanwhile blamed officials in the other political party. Youngkin pointed the finger at his predecessor, Democrat Ralph Northam. “We had some unrealistic goals that were set,” Youngkin said, adding that there was never enough funding to meet the goals.

Youngkin said Virginia had an “extraordinary commitment to the Chesapeake Bay,” and to meeting the cleanup goals, eventually.

Meanwhile, in Maryland, Attorney General Brian Frosh (D), blamed the administration of Gov. Larry Hogan (R). Frosh said last year environmental enforcement actions and inspections in the in the state were down 50%, compared to the average over the previous 20 years. According to a report released by Frosh, the Maryland Department of Environment needs nearly three times its current staff and twice its current budget to effectively enforce the law.

In recent years some of the trends in the bay’s health have been going in the wrong direction. According to the latest report from the EPA’s Chesapeake Bay Program, just 29.6% of the bay and its tidal tributaries met water quality standards, down slightly from 33.1% in 2019, and significantly lower than the record high of 42.2%, set in 2017. Blue crab populations have also been on the decline over the past five years, as have underwater grasses, an important habitat and marker of water quality.

Still, looked at over the long term, the major pollutants contaminating the bay – nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment – have declined significantly over the course of the bay agreement.

The biggest success story, by far, has been cleaning up wastewater in the region by upgrading old sewage plants and infrastructure. There has also been a marked improvement in air quality, which translates to cleaner water. Pollution from car exhaust, power plants and other sources settles directly on the water, and on land to be later washed into the water. Historically, air pollution accounted for as much as one-third of nitrogen flowing into the bay.

Advocates and officials said there is still hope for restoring the bay, even if it is on an extended timeline. For one thing, there is new funding from the bipartisan infrastructure law – close to $50 million a year for the next five years, on top of the Bay Program’s $90 million yearly budget.

“The issue is the next three years,” said Ann Swanson, executive director of the Chesapeake Bay Commission, at the meeting earlier in October. Even if the 2025 goal is out of reach, Swanson said, the region should still strive to get as close as possible, setting an example to the nation that “if you set a really difficult goal, one that almost seems not doable, that you can get damn close.”