A new poll of Northern Virginia residents indicates strong opposition to data center development near public lands. This has become a contentious issue in Prince William County, where supervisors recently approved the Digital Gateway, a zoning change that allows data center projects in areas near Manassas National Battlefield Park.

Another proposed data center project would be located near Prince William Forest Park, which is operated by the National Park Service.

The poll found 77% of Northern Virginia voters believe localities should keep current zoning laws in place instead of changing them to accommodate data center development near parks. 86% would support legislation prohibiting data centers within a mile of a national park, state park, or historically significant location. (A bill brought by Sen. Chap Petersen (D-Fairfax) would have done this, but the legislation died in a Virginia Senate committee earlier this year.)

The poll was commissioned by the National Parks Conservation Association, an organization that has opposed data center development near park lands. Poll questions did not explore residents’ more general views of data centers or their potential economic benefits.

The research surveyed 300 voters from several Northern Virginia jurisdictions and was conducted online. The results were similar across age, gender and political identification.

“National parks in Northern Virginia were protected for their precious natural resources and complex history and for the benefit of future generations,” said Kyle Hart, the NPCA’s Mid-Atlantic program manager in a press release. “There is no place for data centers near our national parks.”

NPCA — as well as Manassas Battlefield National Park leadership — have criticized the Digital Gateway initiative for its potential impact on local watersheds, energy use, preservation of key historic sites, and visitor experience. In a press conference on Wednesday, Hart called the Prince William Digital Gateway “the biggest threat” to national park lands in the commonwealth.

Community debate over data centers in Northern Virginia is swelling. In Prince William County, the November zoning change to allow for data center development near Manassas Battlefield Park unlocked the possibility of nearly 30 million new square feet of the centers. Now, two data center developers — QTS and Compass — have put forward specific project proposals for the newly rezoned area. That step has prompted vociferous opposition from some residents. A QTS community information center on the proposal was recently canceled over concerns about protests. The plans are now under consideration by the supervisors and other county officials.

The NPCA poll also found strong support among respondents for the economic, social and recreational benefits of parks. It detailed concerns over the impacts data centers could have on local watersheds and and energy infrastructure upgrade costs that are typically passed on to the consumer. Local data centers, Hart said, account for about a fifth of regional energy use.

“Extensive questions remain about this industry, both from the perspective of meeting our climate goals and the debate about who is paying for all of the infrastructure upgrades needed to support this one industry,” Hart said.

The poll does not shed light on registered voters’ thoughts about data center development in general. And its questions also did not directly reflect economic arguments from local officials and residents in favor of the centers, which bring significant revenue and adjacent businesses to the localities that house them.

“Between the actual data center jobs and the jobs that are in construction firms and manufacturing components and supplies, it’s several thousand jobs that we have in this region that are generating billions of dollars worth of economic activity,” says Terry Clower, the director of the Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason University.

Those commercial taxes supplement taxes from local homeowners. In Prince William County, for instance, county figures suggest the industry will bring in $100 million in revenue in the current fiscal year, an 18% increase from the previous fiscal year.

That’s particularly significant now, Clower says, at a moment when other streams of commercial revenue like office buildings are lagging in the wake of the pandemic and the shift to hybrid or remote work.

There are few industries that can compete with data centers in terms of potential revenue for the county or when it comes to the financial wherewithal to buy land in an increasingly expensive Northern Virginia region, Clower says.

“There’s probably not a lot of industries out there that have the net profit margins to go to Loudon County and pay two plus million dollars an acre for land,” he says. “You’re not going to attract any other big capital intensive industries with that kind of land cost.”

In Richmond, a measure from Petersen and Del. Danica Roem (D-Prince William) to direct state agencies to study the impacts of data centers on the environment, state economy, and climate goals passed the Senate but failed in a House subcommittee.

Both companies point to the “significant and sustainable tax income to fund important community priorities,” as Compass’s website puts it. QTS cites the opportunity to achieve county goals related to “economic development, enhanced pedestrian and bicycle networks, new trail connections, and dedicated natural and open space areas” with the fiscal boost the data centers could represent.

Meanwhile, the issue has become a central concern in local politics. Prince William Supervisors Chair Ann Wheeler has faced a recall effort from data center development opponents — and is now being challenged in the Democratic primary by DeShundra Jefferson, a public affairs strategist who supports ending tax breaks to data centers and restricting their development to industrial zones.

Republicans in the county are also considering candidates with opposing views on data centers in their primary for the chair seat: Brentsville District Supervisor Jeanine Lawson, who strenuously opposed the Digital Gateway zoning change, is running against Ken Knarr, who is a landowner in the area and stands to benefit financially from the project if it is constructed.

Del. Danica Roem, who opposes the Digital Gateway project and has launched a bid for a state senate seat, joined the NPCA press call. She says the issue has started to come up in conversations with voters outside of the affected areas.

“If there is going to be any political repercussion on this in terms of the General Assembly, I think that the voters are going to need to take a look at who is leading from the front on this issue,” she said.