For the past two months, we’ve been sounding the alarm over crime statistics that we felt indicated a significant increase in robberies and homicides in the District. In January, we focused on increasing robberies, assaults, and thefts while noting that there were two more homicides in January of 2006 than in January of 2005. In February, we noted that crime moderated somewhat (particularly assaults), but we got kind of nervous about the ballooning homicide tally. Last month had more than double the number of homicides than February of 2005, and the first two months of this year had seven more homicides than the first two months last year.

How quickly the picture can change. Through the first half of March, the MPD has reported only five homicides, which means that through today, D.C. has the same number of homicides as through this date last year. Moreover, March is on pace to have fewer homicides than March of 2005 and March of 2004.

It’s not easy to figure why, and there is surely an element of randomness in the numbers. We originally speculated that the differences might be somewhat weather-related, but February hurt that hypothesis, as it was colder than January (and there was less overall crime) but there were more homicides. March has, so far, been quite warm, but homicides are way down. The MPD website does reveal that in the last week of February and the first week of March, arrests were well above the numbers reported for mid-February. This could indicate better or more indiscriminate police work, either of which could affect crime numbers. We’ll continue to follow crime patterns in the city and bring you the latest information.