Photo by KCIvey

Yesterday the Washington Post asked a number of local political watchers, myself included, if we thought Mayor Adrian Fenty would be re-elected in 2010. Some said yes, others said no. I stressed that without a credible challenger – and none has yet stepped forward – Fenty would cruise to a second term. Well, if that capable challenger ends up being D.C. Council Chair Vincent Gray, Fenty may have to start looking for a new job.

According to a new poll conducted by the Clarus Research Group, Gray would narrowly beat Fenty in a head-to-head match up, with 41 percent of registered voters preferring Gray, to Fenty’s 37. And in highlighting a burgeoning racial division in the city, 57 percent of African Americans would pick Gray, with Fenty only winning 20 percent of black voters. Fenty’s strongest bases of support? Whites (51 percent). Also, Republicans (44 percent).

Gray might want to continue to exercise caution before deciding this poll means he should definitely run, however. In the two-way contest, 22 percent of voters remained undecided. And once the hypothetical election was expanded to include council members Kwame Brown (D-At Large) and Michael Brown (I-At Large), the anti-Fenty vote split, allowing the mayor to win a second term with just 34 percent of the vote.

What the poll makes clear is that while the majority of the District’s residents (53 percent) say they are inclined to vote for someone new, a crowded field could allow Fenty to keep his job. And though Fenty and Gray share similar approval ratings (43 and 46 percent, respectively), Gray’s disapproval ratings are substantially lower (16 percent compared to Fenty’s 49 percent). Plus, fully 38 percent of respondents don’t seem to know much about Gray. So while the chairman would need to make himself more known, Fenty will have to make himself more liked – not the easier of the two tasks.