Photo by BrianMKA

Ahead of the season opener for the Washington Nationals this week, Post columnist Marc Fisher penned a good piece over the weekend on how the team’s arrival in D.C. in 2005 has changed the city, notably the area around the new stadium. Buried at the end of the long article, though, was an interesting tidbit that has been generating some discussion:

Nationals officials say fans coming to games are about 60 percent from Virginia, 25 percent from Maryland and 15 percent from the District. That means city residents are slightly overrepresented, Marylanders lag well behind, and Virginians make a strongly disproportionate contribution to city coffers.

The idea that the team may well be the NoVa Nats more than the Washington Nats has provoked some discussion (including by the Post’s own NoVa blogger) as to why our hometown team seems to appeal to Virginians more than District residents. One theory: it’s an easy trip to the stadium from Virginia (at least relative to parts of Maryland), and Virginians haven’t had a team to cheer for at all (while Maryland has had the Baltimore Orioles). That doesn’t really explain the low D.C. attendance, though. The trip to the stadium should be easiest for all of us, after all.

Generally speaking, every “Washington” team will have cross-jurisdictional appeal, and in some cases, multiples home bases. The Redskins plays in Maryland and train in Virginia, but D.C. lawmakers are constantly trying to get them back. The Caps and the Wizards are the only teams of their type in the tri-state area, so their fans likely cross over too. (The Caps train in Virginia.) D.C. United certainly has a fan base in D.C., but their legion of fanatics drive in from around the region to see them play.

As for the Nats, well, maybe D.C. residents had been denied baseball for such a long time that they just don’t really care that much. This is also a relatively transient town, so it can be tough to develop a committed fan base. (Wonder why the Phillies may well successfully occupy Nats Park in May?)

Of course, as with much in this city, some of it could be related to race. A 2010 City Paper/WAMU poll found that support for the Redskins was higher among African American residents, which tend to be longer-term D.C. residents. You could probably make the connection to baseball easily enough—before the Nats, the last baseball team the city had bailed in 1971, leaving the District without a professional franchise for over three decades. Dedicated baseball fanatics living in D.C. could well have shifted their allegiance northward to the Orioles, or given up altogether.

Two important questions arise from the news: Does this matter, and will it change?

In terms of mattering—no, it doesn’t. It’s somewhat cynical to say so, but having Virginians help pay off the stadium that revived an entire neighborhood isn’t a bad deal for D.C. (That being said, the stadium might pay for itself, but it has prevented the city from being able to invest in other big capital projects due to the 12 percent debt cap we have.) Of course, in the grand scheme of local pride, well, it’s a little pathetic that most residents seem to shrug over their local team.

Will it change? It certainly could. The District is growing again, and more people are again investing in making the city a location for eating, drinking and the creative economy. If the Nats reach the playoffs, more locals may well be convinced to follow their hometown squad. Establishing team loyalty is a slow process, after all, and is certainly helped along by a winning season or two.

There is one more element to this, I think—the city’s dual personality. When it was confirmed that the Montreal Expos were coming to D.C., there was a debate over what to name the team. While the Nationals eventually won, one contingent asked that the team be named after the Homestead Grays, a popular team that played in the Negro baseball leagues from 1912 to 1948. (The team’s last eight seasons were played at Griffith Stadium, which was located where Howard University now sits.) The “Grays” connected the team to D.C.; the “Nationals” simply makes the team yet another part of federal Washington.

This all may be a numbers game, though. There are some 2.5 million residents in Northern Virginia, and only 600,000 in D.C. That there are more Virginians at baseball games isn’t that much of a surprise if you do some simple math.