Photo by Mr. T in DC
A memorandum by an adviser to the mayoral campaign of Councilmember Tommy Wells states that the Ward 6 Democrat is “strongly positioned” in the 2014 race following the results of a poll several weeks ago. But the memo, issued by the polling firm Lake Research Partners and obtained by The Washington Post, also reports that Wells finished third in a four-person field, including one who has not yet declared whether he will enter the race.
That still-unannounced candidate, of course, is D.C.’s current mayor, Vince Gray, who has not said whether he will seek a second term. The Post reports that of the 503 voters Lake queried, 21 percent said they would vote for Gray in the Democratic primary next April 1. Wells mustered 16 percent.
Of the declared candidates, Ward 4 Councilmember Muriel Bowser led with 17 percent, while Jack Evans, who represents Ward 2 on the D.C. Council, pulled in 13 percent. Thirty-one percent of those polled were undecided.
But the memo also states that Wells could be in a “statistical dead heat” with Gray. The reasoning? Pollsters offered voters brief summaries of the three candidates and Gray and then asked again for their preference. Gray and Evans’ numbers remained static, Bowser jumped two percentage points to 19, while Wells leaped five points. As the Post’s Mike DeBonis writes, this shift should be read cautiously:
Lake Research Partners is a well-respected Democratic polling firm, but the Wells poll remains a candidate-sponsored survey, meaning it should be read with the general caveat that candidate polls tend to produce more desirable results for that candidate than others.
Wells’ campaign will likely use the results to tack on to last week’s fundraising reports. Though Wells finished is third in the money race, behind Bowser and Evans, he is eschewing contributions from corporate donors and relying solely on personal donations.
In an interview, Wells says that the poll and his fundraising haul show that his chances are not hampered by the presence of another middle-aged white man—Evans—in the chase for the mayoralty.
“There’s a belief that somehow Jack Evans knocks me out or pulls me back,” he says. “What I got from the poll was that that’s not true. I’m in a statistical tie with Bowser and the mayor. It seems to me that it’s a real competitive race.”
Wells adds that his decision to forgo any corporate donations, unlike his rivals, has paid off so far. “It’s clear that this early on to raise a quarter of a million dollars and to run an Obama-like campaign operation… I’ve got a very good operation,” he says.
Lake Research Partners conducted the poll between June 27 and July 1. It carries a margin of four percentage points.
