Photo by Lorie Shaull.

With record-breaking high temperatures last week and now this chilly rain, the weather this November has kept people in a state of confusion.

Never fear, though. The Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang is here to help you navigate the colder months with its winter outlook.

For those of you who get to enjoy snow days, the outlook is bleak. CWG is expecting a “warmer than normal winter with below average snow,” particularly when compared to the last two winters’ blockbuster snowfalls. However, there’ll still be some downy flakes, unlike the winter of 2011-2012.

Less snow doesn’t necessarily mean less precipitation, though. Be prepared to slip and slide through rain and mixed precipitation.

One twist to the prediction is that, while CWG expects below average snow in general, “the chances of a crippling event such as Snowmageddon or the Blizzard of 1996, while always slim (10-15 percent in a given winter), will be somewhat elevated this year (around 25 percent).” CWG says that a storm like that is more likely in the latter half of the season, in particular February.

Even so, the gang isn’t ruling out some high temperatures this winter, including the potential to hit 60 degrees in January. In general, they’re expecting the temperature to be about two degrees milder than average.

Before you get too secure about keeping your furs in storage, though, note that CWG calls this a “low-confidence forecast,” because predicting the weather is a notoriously difficult task.

One thing that supports CWG’s account—Accuweather is also expecting a milder winter for the Mid-Atlantic this year.