(Photo by Daniel Reidel)

Weather-wise, the past few months have been truly wonky, with spring arriving 22 days ahead of schedule, then descending back into winter in time to ruin a whole bunch of cherry blossoms, only for the first heat wave to show up a few months early. Last summer was the fourth-hottest on record, and it broke the record for the longest streak of temperatures above 70 degrees.

The summer, by contrast, isn’t looking likely to set blistering heat records, according to the Capital Weather Gang, which surveyed five private forecasters in addition to the National Weather Service’s summer outlook. They all have come to an unusual agreement that temperatures will be around one degree above the historical average.

If that still sounds pretty damn hot, that’s because it will be. But given that the past few years have been even hotter, this is what counts for a respite.

“Comparing forecasts for this summer versus last summer, it’s substantially cooler,” Stephen Baxter, lead author of the National Weather Service’s summer outlook, told CWG. He said the heat will put this summer around the “middle of the pack” of the past 15 summers.

The private sector forecasters are largely in agreement with the NWS numbers, noting that warm ocean temperatures will probably prevent us from having the less sweltering summer of our dreams. They collectively estimate between 40 and 45 days of heat at or above 90 degrees, compared to 58 last year.