The much-ballyhooed Upshur Street has seen some surprising headlines in recent weeks: closings, rather than openings.

The New York Times wrote in 2014 that “the future of dining in Washington, D.C., has arrived” in the form of Upshur Street, which it described as “a scrubby block in a working-class neighborhood east of Rock Creek Park [with] cheap hair salons, a dry cleaner, and a sad-looking liquor store.”

The Gray Lady wasn’t the only one to herald the changing block in Petworth, which earned a reputation as a place for trendy dining and shopping with more openings in the following years. Joining an early slew of new businesses—Domku, Fia’s Fabulous Finds, Willow, Petworth Citizen, Upshur Street Books, and Crane & Turtle—were Slim’s Diner, Hank’s Cocktail Bar, Ruta Del Vino, Timber Pizza, Himitsu, and Lulabelle’s Sweet Shop.

“As each year has gone by, you’ve seen Upshur Street on the map,” says Fia Thomas, the co-owner of Fia’s Fabulous Finds, a consignment shop that’s been open on the block for eight years. “It’s become a place people want to hang out. That has been beautiful to see.”

There was still turnover, but the spaces were filled in short order. When the vaunted French/Japanese fusion restaurant Crane & Turtle closed, it was replaced by an even more critically acclaimed restaurant—Himitsu (with a temporary crab shack in between.)

The owner of Domku, the first Zagat-rated restaurant on the street, blamed the landlord’s unwillingness to negotiate down from a 66 percent increase in rent for the restaurant’s 2016 closure. Thomas says that Domku’s shuttering “scared us a little bit,” but the street still flourished. Less than a year later, Taqueria del Barrio opened its doors in that same location, the first brick-and-mortar restaurant from the owners of the D.C. Empanadas food truck.

That mixture of establishments, all small businesses with nary a chain in sight, caused the Washington Post to proclaim in 2017 that “Upshur Street has evolved into the best place to eat in D.C. right now.” The author of that story, Holley Simmons, put her money where her mouth is—this November, she announced that she will open a flower shop called She Loves Me and host classes through The Lemon Collective. The new businesses will be housed in a storefront that previously housed a cobbler for the last half century. (Disclosure: Simmons contributes to DCist.)

When Ward 4 Councilmember Brandon Todd first introduced the idea of D.C. having an Office of Nightlife and Culture, he mentioned the changes at Upshur Street as one of the places where “nightlife is coming to areas in our city that have quite frankly been devoid of activity in a long time—certainly nighttime activity.”

But the past few weeks have been rough for the neighborhood, which first saw the shuttering of Ruta Del Vino, right before Hank’s Cocktail Bar announced that it would be decamping from Upshur Street on December 14th set up shop on the second floor of the flagship Hank’s Oyster Bar in Dupont, and Lulabelle’s announced it would temporarily close at the end of December to reorganize and reconfigure.

So what gives? Is Upshur Street over, or at least overblown?

Not according to the block’s business operators, who say they’re confident in the street’s promise.

Paul Ruppert is practically the godfather of modern Upshur Street. The longtime D.C. business owner owns and operates Petworth Citizen, Slim’s Diner, and Upshur Street Books, and sublets to Himitsu’s owners. He expresses sadness at the closures of Ruta Del Vino and Hank’s, but maintains that it reflects the broader difficulties of operating a small business in the District.

“They were an important part of our restaurant community here on Upshur Street,” Ruppert says, adding that closures happen throughout the city. “Every year, it becomes more difficult to run a profitable business—the rising costs of payroll combined with the huge explosion in the number of restaurants in Washington.”

Still, he notes that the small block faces difficulties that businesses in more populous parts of the city don’t. “The thing that marks Petworth and Upshur Street is that our residential density is not as high, nor is our daytime office density as high as it is in lots of other neighborhoods,” Ruppert says.

In addition to the more high-profile closings, the neighborhoods also saw the opening and shuttering of Bentley’s Vintage Furniture and Collectibles and food carryout Cuzzin’s within the past decade.

Andrew Dana, the co-owner of the nationally-recognized Timber Pizza, points to the new residential buildings popping up in the neighborhood as signs that the neighborhood’s foot traffic will continue to increase. “Just in the last year, I’ve see four new multi-unit condos go up within eyeshot of Timber,” he says. “The closures are more happenstance and one-offs rather than ‘Upshur Street doesn’t work.'”

When reached by phone, Justin Logan, the co-owner of Ruta Del Vino, declined to comment on the restaurant’s closure. He told Eater that “business was down for us and it didn’t make sense for us to continue as we had been.”

Thomas, of Fia’s Fabulous Finds, says that when Ruta Del Vino closed, it “was like someone breaking up with me. I took that really hard.” She and her husband had date nights at the Latin American restaurant, and had watched the Ruta team put the restaurant together. “It’s a little bit of a scary time. Big players on that street with regards to traffic are closing down.”

Spokespeople for Hank’s steadfastly call the cocktail bar’s departure from Upshur Street a “move” and a “return home” rather than a closure, and declined to provide comment on the experience of operating a business on the block. (The bar was originally called the Twisted Horn before being rebranded in 2016).

A statement from Todd’s office says that the councilmember “is disappointed by the recent closures on Upshur Street NW. However, he is optimistic that the growth in Petworth and its increasing reputation District-wide as a destination for nightlife and culture will continue to support new commercial investment and vibrancy along the corridor.”

Dana says that he expects new restaurants to open in those spaces. “I can tell you there are already all sorts of people chirping at those places and trying to get in there,” he says.

C.C. Dudley, president of Dudley Pro Realty, which owns space that housed Ruta Del Vino, confirms that there has already been some interest in the location, but “there’s always some concern” when a business owner leaves. Still, he takes the long view: he’s been involved in the Upshur Street area for 37 years and “it’s changed from a depressed area to a growing area.”

Still, for some owners, looking at the books for 2018 is a cause for concern. Thomas and Julie Wineinger, the owner of both Willow and Lulabelle’s, say that the year has been tough.

“I will be honest and say that 2018 has been a really difficult year,” says Wineinger. “2017 was great. We had a great year. It felt like things were just on an upward trajectory, and in 2018, it just nosedived. I also have a store in Navy Yard and I know that it’s not just Upshur Street.”

While she’s not entirely sure what’s at fault for the downturn, she has one theory. “It sounds crazy, but I am attributing it a lot to the fact that it has rained so much,” says Wineinger. “Every single street event that we’ve done this year, it rained every single time. Those are our busiest days of the year, and we’re seeing sales that are half of what they’d be if we had nice weather. It has had a significant impact on my sales.”

Thomas echoed the same concern about the rain. “Every time it rains, and we have had so much rain in D.C., nobody shops or goes out to eat,” she says, adding that establishments with outdoor spaces—like Ruta Del Vino and Hank’s Cocktail Bar—can’t use them. “I can’t put out clothing racks outside when it rains … It has been a challenge not only to stay above water with the climate of financials but also with the actual climate.”

Dana says that he’s heard from business owners throughout the city that 2018 was particularly rough, though it didn’t impact Timber. “We have been blessed. People still like eating pizza, thank god, but I have heard that,” he says. “There’s more competition, more new areas to go here.”

Both Thomas and Wineinger are making changes to their stores in the new year.

“I have no plans on shutting my doors anytime soon,” says Thomas. “However, the changes that are happening with these restaurants closing has pushed me in a direction to reinvent how I do business.” She’s bringing in vintage clothing vendor Bespoke Not Broke. “We’re bringing in new blood, new energy, new ideas into Fia’s to keep traffic moving.”

Even as she’s seen her rent rise “dramatically” over her eight years in business, Thomas remains committed to Upshur Street. “I am invested in making sure that Upshur Street is as successful as possible,” says Thomas. “I am very hopeful. I love my store. I love my community. There are a number of us who are going to do what we can to make sure that Upshur is a place that people want to go.”

Wineinger is temporarily closing Lulabelle’s at the end of December, and plans to reopen it in January without the previous partnership with Each Peach Market. Willow has been open on Upshur for seven years, and she says she would observe that space as “things would go in and out, in and out, in and out, and I wanted something to be in there.” After hearing that people wanted ice cream in the neighborhood, she decided to open Lulabelle’s.

She’s still working out the kinks of how the sweet shop will change when it reopens, though she promises the ice cream will stay the same. “There were a lot of people coming in asking for more lunch stuff,” she says. “I’m not sure there’s entirely enough traffic during the week for lunch, but also we’re open, so we might as well do it.”

And Wineinger just re-signed her lease at Willow, which includes her taking over more space and furthering the clothing store’s expansion.

“I’m not going anywhere,” she says. “When it feels like things are closing and things are changing, I feel like I’m doubling down.”