After a string of elections indicating that Virginia had become an out-and-out blue state, Republican success in the commonwealth on Nov. 2 appeared to buck those recent trends.  Republican businessman Glenn Younkin beat Democrat Terry McAuliffe, a former governor, and his win appeared to bring GOP candidates along in down-ballot races, including securing a new majority in the House of Delegates. 

Here are some of the major takeaways from Election Night, and what comes after. 

This GOP win appears to go against recent trends in Virginia favoring Democrats. But what’s the longer historical trend when it comes to off-year governor’s races? 

The GOP win may be surprising given that Republicans haven’t won statewide in more than a decade.  And just two years ago, Democrats secured control of all three branches in Richmond when they won a majority in the General Assembly. In national contests, Virginia hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 2004, and President Biden captured Virginia by more than 10 points just a year ago. These outcomes are why pundits proclaimed that Virginia lost its swing-state status.

But the 2021 results follow a longer pattern: in 10 of the last 11 governor’s races, the winner of the governorship came from the opposite party as the president. The only exception — Terry McAuliffe, who won the governorship in 2013, a year after Barack Obama was re-elected as Democratic president. But McAuliffe wasn’t able to repeat it this year.

Virginia dramatically expanded voter access this year, and turnout was historically high. Traditional political wisdom says that would favor Democrats, so what did that turnout look like? 

Tuesday’s election saw the highest voter turnout for an off-year gubernatorial race in the commonwealth’s history: Roughly 3.3 million Virginians cast a ballot. Preliminary exit polling shows around 53.3% of registered voters showed up statewide, a sizable increase from the 2017 governor’s race, and an increase that largely benefited Republicans in this upset.

“It’s a higher turnout, and it looks like there was a higher turnout of Republican voters and a consistent turnout of Democratic voters,” said Bob Roberts, a political science professor at James Madison University. “Unless the Democrats can do a better job turning out their vote in an era of polarization, they can’t win with this low voter turnout.”

Typically, voter turnout in off-year elections falls far short of that in a presidential race — a challenge both Democrats and Republicans had to confront leading up to Nov. 2. (Tuesday’s 53.3% turnout is still well below the roughly 75% of the electorate that came out to vote in 2020.) According to Roberts, Democrats, specifically, Terry McAuliffe’s campaign, failed to overcome that challenge. Exit polling showed an older and overwhelmingly white — 73% — voter base, making it unlikely for Democrats to win, according to Roberts. Less than 10% of votes were cast by people under 30. 

Amanda Wintersieck, an assistant professor of political science at Virginia Commonwealth, also says McAuliffe didn’t meet the needs of a modern Democratic voter.

“They didn’t see themselves in him and they did not see themselves in his agenda,” Wintersieck said. “We had really high turnout for young people in 2020, and I think the Democrats really believed that enthusiasm was going to carry through and it simply did not.”

Wintersieck also saw a lack of enthusiasm among Black voters, some of whom went to third-party candidate Princess Blanding, who gained as much as 4% in some of the few polls she was in.

“That should have served as a bellwether for the Democratic Party about what they needed to do within the Black community to earn the Black community’s vote,” she said. 

Youngkin sailed through several rural counties in the state, winning more than 83% of the vote in some jurisdictions. The political newcomer took his home county of Virginia Beach, which swung 14 points to the right since the 2020 presidential election when Joe Biden won by 5%. 

Turnout also increased in Northern Virginia, and the picture was a little better for Democrats there, where their candidates for the House of Delegates held onto all contested seats. But while McAuliffe carried all counties in the region, it was not by nearly the same margins Democrats did in 2020 and 2017. In Loudoun County, where debates in the diversifying public school system laid the groundwork for Youngkin’s “parents matter” mantra, turnout increased by roughly 43,000 votes. McAuliffe won roughly 55% of the votes in Loudoun to Youngkin’s 44%. By comparison, in 2017, Democratic Governor Ralph Northam carried the county by nearly 20 percentage points. 

A fierce debate in Loudoun County schools played an outsized role in this election. What was the issue driving that?

Loudoun County landed in the national spotlight over a series of debates in the school system — from curriculums that look at equity and racism to protections for transgender students, to mask and vaccine mandates in schools. Youngkin made them a wedge issue, trying to present a Virginia where parents no longer had control over what or how their kids learned. 

Among his biggest applause lines at rallies was, “On day one, we are going to ban teaching critical race theory in our schools.”

It’s worth noting that Loudoun County schools don’t teach critical race theory, which is an academic concept of interrogating laws through the lens of racism that is taught in law schools, not high schools.  But conservative activists have pushed to make that phrase a catch-all for teaching historical events or race relations in ways that might make white voters uncomfortable. 

And he didn’t limit these arguments to Loudoun. Youngkin’s last campaign ad, for example, was about a mother in Fairfax who objected to her son’s high school AP English class teaching Beloved by Toni Morrison, though the ad never named the book in question. 

When Youngkin attacked McAuliffe in the second debate for vetoing a GOP bill that would have let parents remove books from curriculums or libraries, McAuliffe responded, “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach.” Youngkin and his supporters seized on that quote.

At the polls on Tuesday, the issue of education did motivate some Northern Virginia voters, on both sides. 

“Loudoun County has been heralded as having the best schools in the country for decades…but they’re not anymore, they’re not,” Abbie Platt, told DCist/WAMU as she cast her ballot. “I’m voting for candidates who support parents … for me, it’s not political. For me, it is a parent’s right to have a choice in their children’s education.” 

Platt pulled her kids out of Loudoun County’s public school system when officials closed the school for the pandemic. But she continues to volunteer with Fight For Schools, a conservative parent group leading recall efforts about LCPS school board members. 

“The country is watching Loudoun County,” Platt said. “It’s a demand for parent rights and it’s a demand for change, and it’s telling political representatives we want and need better.” 

Kathleen Kuhn, a former LCPS teacher and librarian, was also motivated to vote by the issue – but for the opposite reason. 

“The biggest issue for me is the false narrative, the idea that they have been propagating and selling this idea of critical race theory being in the schools, which it’s not,” said Kuhn. “I’ve never seen the school board get so much attention…there’s been this attack on local politics in an [conservative] attempt to work their way up, and I find that very frightening.” 

Virginia Tech political science professor Karen Hult says Republicans ran a good ground game to get both moderate Republicans and Trump voters out. Heavily Republican counties saw 10-15% turnout increases over the 2017 gubernatorial election. 

Hult chalks that up to an enthusiasm gap and election fatigue.

“There is some disappointment by some Democratic activists at the nomination decisions that were made in the Democratic primary… the ticket was much less diverse, both in terms of gender and race and ethnicity than at least some Democratic voters were hoping for,” Hult said. While the Democratic ticket included Haya Ayala as the nominee for lieutenant governor, who would have been the first woman and the first woman of color to win statewide office in Virginia, the Republican ticket ran Winsome Sears, a Black woman, for lieutenant governor.

If Youngkin found traction focusing on parents and schools, what was Terry McAuliffe’s strategy, and why did it fall short? 

McAuliffe’s main strategy was to tie Youngkin to Donald Trump, hoping to galvanize Democrats who were highly motivated in 2020 to vote Trump out of office. But Trump wasn’t on the ballot, and Youngkin walked a careful line between distancing himself from the former president while still signaling to the Trump base that he shared values on issues like schools and support for law enforcement. 

“The Democratic base … they were tired, due to a lot of different reasons,” Roberts said. “Donald Trump wasn’t on the ticket. Youngkin was on the ticket, and he came across as a suburban dad.”  

Whether the issue of schools drove the record turnout is unclear, but exit polling suggests it was the second-most important issue to voters. Robert says it was twofold: Republicans saw success in turning out the vote, and Democrats lacked motivation as strong as the anti-Trump sentiment that carried them to victory in 2017, despite McAuliffe’s best attempts to link his opponent to the former president.

Republicans will now hold the executive branch and a majority in the House of Delegates, Democrats maintain a slim majority in the Senate. How will Youngkin advance his agenda with a split government?

There will have to be cooperation or gridlock. 

Youngkin said he has a big agenda for day one, but it would have to get through a Democratic Senate who could act as a firewall to prevent Republicans from undoing a lot of their progress. 

Many political analysts say this could mean more polarization, more entrenchment, and a more Washington-style of governing.

But some Democrats, including current Gov. Ralph Northam, are hoping to find some middle ground. In a statement congratulating the new governor, Northam encouraged Youngkin to focus on bringing jobs, boosting the rainy day fund, investing in public schools, and expanding broadband.

Hult agrees that there could be cooperation on issues like highway funding, more aid for K-12 schools, and broadband, issues that can stretch across the aisle.

One of the more contentious issues could be what to do with the commonwealth’s large budget surplus. Youngkin is seeking big tax cuts or rebates, but Democrats might have other ideas for that money. One potential area of agreement there is in eliminating the grocery tax, one of  Youngkin’s campaign promises, a proposal supported by many Democrats.

The Virginia Senate Democratic Caucus put out a statement Wednesday congratulating Youngkin, saying they “look forward to working with Mr. Youngkin and his future administration to continue to build a forward-thinking, fair, and strong Commonwealth for all.”

It did not include bluster or warning shots, but rather a cooperative tone. Wintersieck said she’s not sure what to make of that statement, speculating they may just be stunned at yesterday’s election.

 “This was the Democrats’ election to lose, and they clearly lost it in a spectacular manner,” she said. “And I think they’re really surprised… it’s not as much of a solid blue state as previously thought.”

But all of this is even more complicated by the redistricting process, which means Delegates may have to run again as soon as next year under new legislative maps. The Senate isn’t up for election until 2023. 

Meanwhile, Youngkin will only have four years to make his mark, as Virginia is the only state that limits governors to a single term, meaning the first time politician will have to hit the ground quickly, Hult says.

How have Democrats in Washington responded to the loss in Virginia?

Virginia Democrats see the election results as a prod to get things done.

“Finally, to my colleagues, I urge that we resolve our disagreements and pass both of the bills before us, and deliver on the President’s very popular agenda,” Rep. Don Beyer, who represents the 8th District, said in a statement “We must legislate and keep our promises. 

We also must work harder to communicate effectively about the ways this legislation and the Administration’s policies will help address voters’ economic concerns. The American people sent us here to do big things, and we must use our power to improve their lives and make the country stronger.”

Sen. Mark Warner agreed, saying “let’s get the President the infrastructure bill, not only in terms of the substance but also in terms of showing that we can govern in a pragmatic, practical way.”

Warner also said Democrats have to come back to the center, saying, “You can’t win in Virginia if you only appeal to very liberal voters.”