A number of groups are organizing convoys of truckers to drive to D.C. to stage protests against pandemic restrictions, similar to those that have recently paralyzed Ottawa, the Canadian capital. That convoy blocked a key border crossing between Ontario and Michigan.

Online, the movement is decentralized, with a variety of organizations planning different driving routes and arrival times in D.C. The American Truckers Freedom Fund lists six routes on its website, departing for D.C. from as far away as Washington state, Ohio, and North Dakota. The People’s Convoy, another group organizing a drive to D.C., says it will start from Los Angeles on Wednesday and arrive in D.C. next week.

The American Truckers Freedom Fund routes also appear to be targeting next week for arrival of the convoys in D.C. Authorities in D.C. are preparing for possible disruptions to the State of the Union address on March 1, though some of the trucker groups are aiming to arrive after that date. Other groups appear to be planning to arrive this week.

The People’s Convoy, which plans to arrive in D.C. after the State of the Union, has emerged as one of the main organizing groups, according to Sara Aniano, a Monmouth University graduate student who specializes in far-right social media activity in the lead-up to January 6. Aniano has been monitoring Telegram chats and other online discussion forums, watching to see if a real-world movement materializes from the internet conversations.

“Increasingly, in the past 24 hours, I’ve seen more people sharing the People’s Convoy itinerary,” she says.

But she cautions that there are still a variety of different groups and proposed plans. No D.C.-bound convoys have yet materialized.

“What we know now is that more itineraries and maps have kind of been solidified,” Aniano says. “I will say that there are multiple maps circulating around, so it is hard to know who will follow which guidance.”

It’s also not yet clear what the convoys might seek to do in D.C. when they arrive in the region. Aniano says the People’s Convoy’s official line is that the group won’t go into the District itself, hasn’t said what they’ll do instead. And she says there’s debate in online forums about whether or not driving into the city could be an effective way to get the group’s message across.

“The big difference here with January 6 is that there was a fixed event and well-organized rally that was happening on that day, whereas this just kind of has a start date and who knows whether or not they’re actually going to abide by that start date, and kind of a fuzzier end point,” Aniano says.

There are other possible targets for protests in the D.C. region. One Pennsylvania-based organizer, Bob Bolus, says he intends to shut down all but one lane of the Beltway.

“I’ll give you an analogy of that of a giant boa constrictor that basically squeezes you, chokes you and it swallows you, and that’s what we’re going to do the D.C,” Bolus, a longtime Trump supporter and owner of a trucking business, told Fox 5.

Area police departments say they’re preparing for potential disruptions in and around D.C. this week and next, in part in response to a Feb. 8 bulletin from the federal Department of Homeland Security, which warned of trucker protests that could disrupt the Super Bowl in Los Angeles and then head across the country to Washington. (A mass trucker presence in Los Angeles during the Super Bowl ultimately didn’t happen.)

Maryland State Police said in a statement the agency was “aware” of the possible protests and would be ready to work with other law enforcement partners to respond if necessary.

D.C. Police Chief Robert Contee confirmed Friday that the police department would staff its Civil Disturbance Units with 500 officers per day this week.

“We have to be in a posture of preparedness for the information that we know,” he said.

D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser said the District was not yet ready to urge Washingtonians to take precautions or stay home, a message officials communicated to residents in the wake of the Capitol riot on January 6 last year and in the tense lead-up to this year’s presidential inauguration.

“We’re not at a point to give specific instructions to residents as yet, but we will,” Bowser told members of the press on Friday.

Aniano agrees.

“I think that the anxiety is warranted. Obviously, we don’t want to sound the alarm if it’s not necessary, but I don’t see this falling apart,” she says.

U.S. Capitol Police said in a statement Friday that the department was planning for extra security ahead of Biden’s State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress on March 1.

“As with any demonstration, the USCP will facilitate lawful First Amendment activity,” the department said. “The USCP is closely coordinating with local, state and federal law enforcement agencies, including DC’s Metropolitan Police Department, the United States Park Police, the United States Secret Service and other allied agencies to include the DC National Guard.”

Officials on Capitol Hill are planning to add fencing around the Capitol ahead of the speech. In its statement, the Capitol Police didn’t rule out fencing the “temporary inner-perimeter” of the Capitol building. Police fenced in the Capitol in the wake of the insurrection and attack on the Capitol on January 6 last year. The perimeter fence remained in place until the following July, much to the frustration of locals. 

Contee said January 6 would be top of mind as the department prepares for the possible convoys.

“We think about all those things with any demonstration that we have here, any First Amendment [event], any riot,” he said. “Those are all lessons learned.”

While local officials brace for possible trucker demonstrations, some members of Congress are ready to roll out the red carpet. Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, a Republican, said he’d welcome a convoy.

The exact message of a potential protest in D.C. is also a bit murky. Truckers in Ottawa were there to protest COVID-19 vaccine mandates for truckers. The same appears to be true for the convoys being supported by the American Truckers Freedom Fund, which calls itself “a movement of peaceful, non-violent Americans who are dissatisfied with the unscientific, unconstitutional government overreach in regards to mandates.” (There is broad scientific consensus supporting the COVID-19 vaccine’s efficacy.)

The fund also lists other causes, including support for national energy independence and reopening the Keystone Pipeline, and enhancing U.S.-Mexico border security. Other truckers are driving to protest “Big Tech/Government Censorship,” agricultural regulations, and “Big Pharma Control over Independent Liberty.”

The People’s Convoy said in a statement on Sunday that its protest is to demand a rollback of pandemic restrictions in light of the COVID-19 vaccine and treatments for infections.

“With the advent of the vaccine and workable therapeutic agents, along with the hard work of so many sectors that contributed to declining COVID-19 cases and severity of illness, it is now time to re-open the country,” the group said. “COVID is well-in-hand now, and Americans need to get back to work in a free and unrestricted manner.”

Aniano sees direct links between the online convoy movement and broader conspiracy-minded, right-wing movement spreading distrust of mainstream institutions.

“I think it’s important to point out that a lot of groups on Telegram, for example, that maybe call themselves Stop the Steal groups or MAGA groups or QAnon groups have actually just changed their names to convoy groups,” she says. “So it is a direct extension of that very same rhetoric, which is to not trust the government and to try and take the power back.”

So far, Aniano has only found anecdotal evidence of the ties between the convoy groups and far-right hate groups involved in the movement in Ottawa. She also questions the extent to which the movement is even being led by actual truckers.

“They want to evoke this working class versus the global elites kind of narrative that the that the underdogs are rising up against the big government. But again, that’s really not what’s happening,” she says. “There’s not as many truckers guiding this as people think there are.”

This isn’t the first time truckers have threatened to disrupt D.C. In 2013, a “Truckers Ride for Constitution Rally” intended to clog up the Beltway, but the protest didn’t ultimately make the artery much more hellish than it already is.

This story has been updated with context from researcher Sara Aniano, and to include a statement from the Maryland State Police.