The race for Maryland’s highest office is Wes Moore’s to lose, a collaborative poll from The Baltimore Banner, Goucher College, and WYPR 88.1. released Monday reveals. Seven weeks ahead of the general election, the Democratic candidate holds a 22-point lead over Republican nominee Dan Cox.

The results of the latest poll come as little surprise in a state where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans 2 to 1. The disparities are even more stark in the Washington region; in Montgomery County, Democrats outnumber Republicans four to one. Cox did beat Schulz in Montgomery County, by a narrow 237 votes. 

At 8%, Prince George’s County has the lowest percentage of registered Republican voters of any county in the state as of Nov. 2020. Though Cox bested Kelly Schulz, Maryland’s former Secretary of the Department of Commerce, in the gubernatorial primary there by more than 12%, Republican votes only accounted for 5% of the more than 125,000 ballots cast in the county.

Popular two-term Republican Governor Larry Hogan won in a blue state eight years ago with moderate politics and a focus on business-friendly policies. Dan Cox has instead aligned himself with the Republican party’s right wing, including former President Donald Trump. Mileah Kromer, director of Goucher College’s Center for Politics, says it’s an uphill battle for him to win in November’s general election.

“Cox celebrated the endorsement from former Pres. Donald Trump; that endorsement helped him win the Republican primary,” Kromer explains, “But once you start to get into a general election situation…that endorsement quickly moves from being a help to a hindrance.”

 An earlier poll conducted by WYPR in June found Maryland Democrats are overwhelmingly unwilling to consider voting for Dan Cox.

Republicans across Maryland did strongly favor Cox in the July primary. Cox beat his more moderate Republican opponent Kelly Schulz in every county in Maryland, including Montgomery and Prince George’s. 

Of the 748 likely voters polled, 53% said they plan to vote for Moore, compared to 31% who pledged support to Cox. Libertarian David Lashar picked up 4%, and Nancy Wallace running as a member of the Green Party took  2%.  Of the remaining voters polled, 1% of respondents say they plan to vote for another candidate, 1% declined to answer, and 8% said they were undecided. The poll has a 3.1% margin of error.

Moreover, most voters are firm in their choices. Close to 70% of those surveyed said they would not change their minds, which is particularly notable according to Kromer.

“These individuals who are not sort of fluid, or are really up for grabs. They are just already set,” Kromer told WAMU/DCist. 

Question 4, which would legalize recreational marijuana, was favored by a 59% margin, even though most of the pro-legalization campaigns have not yet gotten fully underway in the state.

Democratic candidates down ballot also came out on top, leading by at least 13 percentage points. Democratic candidate for Attorney General Anthony Brown holds a 22-point lead, a 53% to 31% advantage over Republican Michael Peroutka; Democrat for Comptroller Brooke Lierman, a Bethesda native, holds a 13-point advantage over Republican Barry Glassman.

U.S. Sen. Chris Van Hollen, a Democrat, also looks to be in a very strong position in his matchup with Republican challenger Chris Chafee, a businessman.

Van Hollen amassed 56% of voters’ support compared to Chafee’s 33%. Van Hollen, a Kensington resident, previously served as the U.S. Representative for Maryland’s 8th congressional district, which encompasses large swathes of Montgomery County, as well as parts of Frederick and Carroll counties.

The general election is Nov. 8.