Maybe Marge Simpson was onto something when she noted that the best way to live your life is to set your goals so low that if you fail, no one will even notice. D.C. Mayor Anthony Williams should have taken note.

It was one month ago that Williams promised to cut violent crime by 50 percent in 30 days. To do that, he pushed the D.C. Council to pass legislation that would allow a stricter juvenile curfew, expand the size of the Metropolitan Police Department, and install some 48 surveillance cameras throughout the city.

But today the D.C. Examiner’s print edition reports that violent crime hasn’t fallen by 50 percent. Heck, it hasn’t even fallen by 10 percent. According to police statistics, violent crime fell by 6 percent from July 12 to August 20 when compared to the same time last year. While any reduction is a good reduction, it remains to be seen if this drop is merely statistically consistent with years past. After all, the summer months tend to see a spike in crime, and we’re nearing the end of summer. If it is consistent, then not much of anything has been accomplished.

What does this all mean? Williams may have set his goals far too high. The District’s homicide rate has fallen in recent years, but it’s been a slow decline. Drops in violent crime can’t be expected to be dramatic and sudden, with almost all other conditions remaining equal. Had Williams promised a more modest decrease over a longer time frame, say three months, he may have gotten closer to what he was looking for. But he went for the dramatic and show-stopping, and may now face a city skeptical of the measures he promised would have an obvious impact on crime.