Photo by blogancircle.

There have been debates and forums, polls, candidate profiles, and high-profile endorsements. But how about some predictions as to who’s going to win the District’s mayoral contest? One blogger took an educated stab at it, and found that Vince Gray could well become the District’s newest chief executive.

Josh Bell, author of the “Unofficial Vince Gray for Mayor Blog,” has published an interesting set of predictions for the outcome of the September 12 Democratic primary battle between Mayor Adrian Fenty and D.C. Council Chairman Vince Gray. Relying on polling data from the Clarus Research Group, current and historic voter registration records, and results from prior Democratic primaries, Bell sketched out six possible outcomes based on two different models — all of which projected Gray as the winner.

At worst, Bell predicts, Gray will win with a narrow 4.8 percent margin, defeating Fenty 50.8 to 46.2 if turnout barely exceeded 35 percent. At best, the margin of victory would increase to 9.8 percent, with Gray besting Fenty 54.2 to 44.4 with over 50 percent turnout.

Of course, predictions from a guy openly in the tank for Gray — though he said he voted for Fenty in 2006 — are admittedly suspect at best. Bell admits as much in his post, writing, “In light of the fact that this is a blog which openly endorses the candidacy of Vince Gray, the casual or skeptical reader might look at my results askance. In response to that I would say that despite the figures below, I took every effort to be as impartial as possible.”