Photo by The Voice of Eye.

The great decider in this year’s mayoral election, as we’ve all known for several months, will be turnout. The most recent Clarus poll, released on Wednesday and showing challenger Vince Gray with a seven point lead among likely Democratic voters, pegged African-American turnout in this year’s election at 55 percent. Clarus took the liberty of projecting two turnout scenarios: one where African-American turnout bumped up to 60 percent, the other in which it dropped to 50 percent. In the former scenario, Gray’s lead increased to a whopping eleven points; in the latter, his lead shrunk to two points, well within the margin of error and basically making the race a complete toss-up.

It’s worth noting that overall turnout in the last three Democratic primaries for which voters decided on a Mayor has been rather sterile: 35 percent (2006), 33 percent (2002) and 34 percent (1998). The last time turnout even encapsulated a majority of registered Democratic voters was in 1994, when turnout to elect Marion Barry to his final mayoral term was 52 percent.

But will this be the year when we see a turnout hike? Things certainly seem promising. More than 15,000 D.C. voters have taken the chance to vote early at any of the Board of Elections and Ethics’ voting centers. Consider that this year, unregistered voters will be allowed to do so on Primary Day, potentially pushing the number of provisional ballots much higher than in previous elections. Absentee voters now have new options to install confidence that their vote will been counted. (For the first time ever, those filing absentee ballots with BOEE for this year’s election can now check the status of their ballot online — previously, absentee voters had to call the election board to confirm that it had been received and processed.) Everyone in town appears to be really excited about voting in this election, from ex-offenders who are marching to the Southeast Tennis and Learning Center on Saturday morning to vote to soccer supporters to labor unions who are encouraging their members to vote en masse.

Regardless of who they’re going to the polls for, higher turnout is a good thing.