Photo by M.V. Jantzen
A report issued earlier this week by researchers at George Mason University claiming that a vast majority of Washington area residents would still be commuting by car 30 years from now is based on faulty information, according to a nonprofit organization that advocates for multimodal development.
In the report, George Mason scholars predicted that by 2040, 73.1 percent of all trips taken would be done so by automobile, showing almost no change from 2007 levels. Effectively, it predicted that even with numerous infrastructure projects set to be completed over the next three decades, the D.C. region would be just as gridlocked as it is today.
But the Coalition for Smarter Growth argues otherwise, saying that the George Mason study is not only built on bad data, it offers a worrisome prescription for the region’s future.
“It’s based on what we considered to be outdated and flawed assumption,” Alex Posorske,” the group’s managing director, said in an interview. “If taken seriously, it would lead region down dangerous and unstable path.”
Following the George Mason analysis, Posorske said, would leave the region lined even more suburban and exurban highways rather than new public transit lines and more walkable neighborhoods. He also said that George Mason’s researchers based their projections on an assumption that a suburban-sprawl model of growth would continue to dictate infrastructure development, when in fact recent trends have shown that major U.S. cities—Washington included—are outpacing their suburbs in population and economic growth.
And as cities grow, more people are favoring alternate modes of transportation to move themselves around. Posorske cited the National Association of Realtors’ 2011 Community Preference Survey, which found that 56 percent of respondents said they would prefer to live in walkable, mixed-use neighborhoods rather than landscapes commanded by roadways.
It’s a trend Posorske said extends to some of D.C.’s more heavily built-up suburbs.
“Look at Arlington basing development around Metro stations,” he said. And in Montgomery County, Posorske pointed to the redevelopment centered around the White Flint station in Rockville. “They’re trying to update it because they know what that’s what they need to do to remain competitive,” he said.
In a news release, the Coalition for Smarter Growth charged the George Mason study with serving the interests of Northern Virginia developers associated with The 2030 Group, a coalition of Washington-area development executives. Such an affiliation overlooks the popular trends that are at work, Posorske said.
“They failed to take into account trends on where people want to live, work and play over the next 30 years,” he said. Still, “it’s a complicated issue. No one can pull out a crystal ball and say what’s going to happen.”
