The coronavirus pandemic has not yet hit the Washington region with the same force in which it’s hit other metro areas. But the growth in confirmed cases is showing an ominous upturn that some other cities have already experienced. Here’s a quick look at where things stand here.

We’ve heard so much about “flattening the curve” of confirmed cases and deaths. Where are we on the curve now?

Still very much on the upswing. The number of confirmed cases are up sharply this week in Maryland and D.C., and rising only a little more slowly in Virginia. Confirmed cases across the three jurisdictions crossed the 10,000 threshold, according to figures reported Wednesday.

Maryland alone accounted for more than 6,000 in cases reported for Wednesday, about triple the cases from one week ago. Virginia had more than 4,000 cases, double from the previous week. And the District had about 1,500, more than double from the week before.

The number of coronavirus-related deaths in the area is following a similar trajectory.

Where are most of the cases occurring in the region?

The large increase in cases is being fueled primarily by the Washington suburbs.

Maryland’s recent sharp increase has been felt most heavily in Prince George’s and Montgomery counties. Prince George’s has seen the number of its cases triple as it braces to hit 1,500. Montgomery, on a similar trajectory, just crossed 1,200. The two counties have reported fewer than 70 deaths so far — 35 in Prince George’s and 29 in Montgomery, as of Thursday — but those figures are expected to rise.

No county in Virginia has been hit harder than Fairfax, with nearly 700 confirmed cases reported as of Thursday, triple from the week before. Prince William, Arlington and Loudoun counties are also among the state’s hot spots, though all trail Fairfax with about 300 cases each.

What’s behind the increase?

The continuing rise in cases seems to reflect both the spread of the disease and increased testing.

Health experts and government officials across the country said for weeks that they lacked enough tests to properly measure, respond to, and isolate the coronavirus. Health experts contend there are likely far more cases than have been reported, particularly as jurisdictions limit testing availability to those deemed potential high risk cases and those with a doctor’s orders.

Now that the number of tests are proliferating, so too are confirmations about the number of cases. Days often go by between when a test is conducted and when the results are known. So the number of confirmed cases are considered a lagging indicator of the virus’ spread.

Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan tweeted that private laboratories in Maryland are aiding the state’s response to COVD-19. He said commercial labs are beginning “to clear their backlog of tests. More than 30% of the new cases reported [Wednesday] are for testing that was completed in March.”

What are the latest estimates for when we might hit the peak?

There are so many variables behind estimating the peak that it’s hard to pinpoint a forecast with a high level of confidence. Different models and forecasts put states’ peaks at very different times. For instance, the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) puts the national peak on April 11. Locally, it estimates that D.C.’s peak was on April 9, Maryland will hit its peak on April 17 and Virginia on April 20.

But D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser said last week the city was instead relying on Penn Medicine’s COVID-19 Hospital Impact Model for Epidemics (CHIME) model. That one pushes the peak into late June or early July — and estimates far more possible infections and potential deaths.

Bowser said she thought the University of Washington model was too optimistic because it overestimated how successful social distancing would be in stopping transmission. She would rather prepare for Penn’s worst-case scenario — especially when it comes to having the right number of hospital beds and ventilators ready.

Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam is hedging his bets. He said earlier this month that he sees the commonwealth’s peak coming in late April or early May. But he also cautioned that people should not read too much into models. “For now, we are at the beginning of this virus and that is why it’s so important for Virginians to stay at home,” he said.

Hogan has also advised a cautious approach with the forecasts. “Models are only best estimates and models don’t necessarily take into account how seriously Maryland has put social distancing measures in place,” he said.