After last month’s spikes in coronavirus cases numbers around the region, some metrics are ticking downward.

Total daily new cases in D.C., Maryland, and Virginia have largely been below 2,000 so far for the month of August —a positive sign after the three jurisdictions reported a combined daily case count of 2,700 in July (the region’s highest since May).

On Sunday, Virginia reached a milestone with 100,000 probable and confirmed cases since the start of the pandemic, following a record-breaking highest daily total last Friday of 2,015 cases (which the Virginia Department of Health attributed to a backlogged technical error). Prior to Friday’s uptick, Virginia was seeing decreasing daily new cases, and on Monday, the commonwealth reported 663 new cases, its lowest daily number since July 9, and well below its seven-day average of 1,092.

Since early August, daily case counts have declined in Maryland as well, which reported 755 new coronavirus cases on Monday, slightly above the seven-day average of 747, but below its average of 940 at the end of July. In D.C., daily case counts have plateaued between 50-85 cases since the end of July. There was a jump on Sunday, with 100 reported cases, but the city’s daily total dropped again Monday, with 54 new positive cases, below its last reported seven-day average of 68. 

The optimistic trends follow a concerning spike in cases in mid-July, when D.C., Maryland, and Virginia all recorded their highest numbers of new daily cases since early June. The seven-day average of cases also increased last month; on July 19, D.C. had a seven-day average of 62, compared with 43 a month prior, and Maryland and Virginia saw seven-day averages of 713 and 966, compared to June’s 413 and 512, respectively.

State and local officials partially attributed July’s increase to the younger demographic’s beach town travels, visits to bars and restaurants, and lax attitudes toward social distancing. According to data from the Virginia Department of Health, cases in the state increased by 250% among people aged 20-29, and by 240% among people under 20 from the end of May to beginning of July. In response to the rising cases across the area, Virginia Governor Ralph Northam reimposed restrictions in Hampton Roads, while other leaders like Maryland Governor Larry Hogan and D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser expanded  mask mandates, paused reopening efforts, and instituted travel advisories to curb the spread.

While University of Maryland public health professor Laura Franzini says that the recent decrease in daily case counts is “encouraging,” she adds that several metrics — like the average positivity rate and testing capacities — are equally important for understanding the trajectory of the pandemic in a community.

“Just a [daily] case count and a seven-day average is a good metric, because it gives us an idea of what’s happening today, and yesterday, but it’s limited because there could be many reasons why there are more new cases,” says Franzini, who chairs UMD’s health services department. “If we look at the positivity rate, that gives a [different] indication, because if the positivity rate is high, it means there are a lot of people out there who are infected, but  they’re not being tested, or we’re not identifying them. Ideally, we’d want the positivity rate to be less than five percent.” 

On Monday, Maryland reported a record-low statewide positivity rate of 3.62%, and prior to Virginia’s spike in cases on Friday, the commonwealth was recording a seven-day average positivity rate of 7.4%, down from 7.8% in mid-July. D.C. reported a 3.4% average positivity rate on August 2, down from 3.8% on July 24. And across D.C., Maryland, and Virginia, nearly three million people have been tested for the virus.

Some of the regions hardest-hit jurisdictions and hot-spot areas have also reported hopeful trends this month. Virginia Beach, one of the vacation destinations that raised concern from officials, has recently seen a small decrease in daily cases, after reporting a jump of 329 new positives on July 25. In Prince George’s County (which accounts for nearly 25% of Maryland’s total cases) the percent positivity rate has dipped to its lowest since the pandemic began,  at 5.4% as of Monday.

Franzini says that the recent daily case counts and positivity rates show promise, but that other measures like hospitalizations and death rates could show a delayed rise in the coming weeks, as people diagnosed earlier start to experience increasingly serious symptoms.

“Each one of these measures gives us information on the spread of the virus at different points in time,” Franzini says. “[During July’s case spikes] we weren’t seeing any increases in hospitalization nor in deaths. Recently, we’re starting to see a bit more of an increase in hospitalization, but at the same time, in the past really couple of days, the cases have been going down again or at least not increasing anymore. That tells us that we won’t be surprised if we saw more hospitalizations in the next week or two.” 

Maryland reported that its intensive-care unit bed capacity dipped below 120 for the first time Monday, after hospitalizations ticked upward on July 31. In Virginia, hospitalizations increased during the first days of August, and are trending downward again. On August 6, D.C.’s hospital bed capacity reached 80%, the level it aims to stay below— though it decreased again to 76.1% on August 9. Spikes in Virginia’s death count earlier this month have also declined in recent days, and Maryland and D.C. have seen their daily death totals level off since mid-July.

Franzini says she is not confident that the seemingly hopeful metrics will last through the rest of the summer and fall, especially as some local colleges and schools reopen. She outlined two basic factors that could hopefully prevent another peak like July’s.

“There are two things we need to do; one is to stop people from going out so much, but second, and maybe as important if not more important, is that if people do go out, follow the risk behavior that’s recommended,” she says. “Everybody should be wearing a mask, everybody should be social distancing even when wearing a mask, and really avoiding being indoors. Now, we know a lot more about how the virus spreads, so I think we can be more focused, more surgical about what the actions we can take to reduce the spread.”

As of Monday, D.C., Maryland, and Virginia have recorded 6,372 confirmed or probable deaths from COVID-19, and over 209,814 positive cases.