Lauren Durkee is not going to New Jersey to see her aunt and uncle this year for Thanksgiving.

She and her husband Colin usually make the trip from their home in Silver Spring, Maryland, but with coronavirus cases rising and local officials warning against holiday gatherings, they feel the risks are not worth it. Plus, she says, the chances of letting their guard down are too great.

“It’s hard to take the emotion out of [the decision not to go],” 33-year-old Durkee says, “But let’s be honest, will our families all wear masks for three days straight all around each other? So it’s just like, let’s not do it. Let’s not even tempt ourselves.”

Across the D.C. region, locals are making tough decisions about traveling to see loved ones and engaging in their typical Thanksgiving traditions in the midst of a pandemic that looks to be worsening.

Ryan Presbrey, 36, his girlfriend Natalie, and their dog Willie also won’t be making a 10-hour drive from Woodley Park to see their families in Rhode Island for the holiday. For him, the decision was an easy one.

“I don’t feel comfortable with even the remote possibility of exposing whatever I picked up to my family and, then, vice versa, or whatever they might have bringing that back to the city,” he says. The thought of being the source of a coronavirus outbreak weighs heavily on Presbrey.

“I don’t want to be that person.”

Julie Allard and her husband David Morris are still taking their annual wedding anniversary trip. This year, the Alexandria, Virginia, couple is going to Jamaica to stay at an all-inclusive resort, leaving a few days before Thanksgiving. She says they’re adhering to all local and Jamaican protocols, including guidance put out by D.C., since Morris works at a restaurant near the White House.

This tradition, particularly on their 10th wedding anniversary, is worth it to them.

Julie Allard understands why some may disagree with her choice to fly to Jamaica in the middle of the pandemic. But she says she’s following all protocols, being careful, and has consulted with her doctor. Plus, it’s been a very tough year for her personally, losing two parents, struggling with medical issues, and leaving a job. She’s looking forward to the break.

“Ultimately, everything we do these days boils down to a personal choice. What are you comfortable with?” she says. “The best I can do is live every day and make informed choices and decisions.”

For 40-year-old Salim Adofo, the decision about what to do for the upcoming holiday hasn’t been as straightforward.

Adofo says it’s likely he will end up making the trip to either New Jersey or Georgia to see loved ones, though he understands that his decision doesn’t just impact him. Adofo is an Advisory Neighborhood Commission (ANC) in Ward 8, which has the highest total number of deaths from COVID-19 of any ward in the city.

“We do know that people who have the least amount of access to quality health care resources… their health is already compromised,” he says.

As an ANC commissioner and representative for his community, Adofo says he has a responsibility to model responsible decision-making. But he also misses his family.

“This is the dilemma I’m facing,” he says.

Earlier this week, both D.C. and Maryland reported the largest number of daily COVID-19 cases since May. There’s now “substantial community spread with hard decisions coming about tightening restrictions.

Amid this frightening reality, local officials are providing guidance on how to spend the holiday safely. Last month, D.C. strongly recommended not traveling outside of the region, instead suggesting having a virtual Thanksgiving dinner and celebrating in-person, only with members of your household.

Then, on Nov. 5, the District changed its guidelines for the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday, hypothesizing that previous recommendations may not be followed.

The new mayor’s order no longer requires quartaining for 14 days but rather asks visitors (and returning residents) to get a test 72 hours prior to traveling to the city if they are coming from one of the 42 ‘high-risk’ states. In addition, if visitors (or residents) plan to stay in the District for more than three days, a second test is required within five days of arrival.

D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser said these changes were a direct response to the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday. “We continue to ask people to limit their travel and to stay at home. We also know that people are going to come here and that, more than likely, not going to quarantine for 14 days if they do,” she said.

Virginia provides warnings and guidance similar to the District’s. According to guidance from Alexandria’s Health Department, traveling, attending crowded parades, and shopping in crowded stores are all high risk activities.

Alexandria Health Director Dr. Stephen Haering tells DCist/WAMU that he’s greatly concerned about what’s going to happen after the holiday, in terms of community spread and hospital capacity.

“Choose your activities wisely,” Haering says, urging people to avoid high risk activities.“Really consider getting tested before you go home for the holidays and get tested after you come back.”

In Montgomery County, local officials have already responded to the uptick in cases by voting unanimously to tighten restrictions, particularly on limiting the size of gatherings.

Montgomery County Health Officer Dr. Travis Gayles tells DCist/WAMU there’s “significant concern” about another surge in cases after Thanksgiving which could lead to further restrictions. “The number could increase significantly very quickly and put us back in a place where we’re looking at worse numbers, more fatalities and worse hospital surges than where we earlier on in the pandemic.”

Montgomery County has issued guidance similar to D.C.’s and Alexandria’s when it comes to holiday gatherings. But he cautions that pandemic fatigue and risk perception are clouding people’s judgement. “People…have this perception of ‘even if I get it, unless I’m in the special categories, I’m probably going to be fine,’” he says. “That’s dangerous because there is no way to predict what your symptom course may be…if you contract COVID-19.”

Prince George’s County asks residents to “reconsider” traveling for the holidays, but if you do decide to go somewhere, do it in your vehicle and avoid public transportation.

While localities can issue guidance, enforcement is admittedly difficult. Ultimately, it will come down to the decisions individuals make this holiday season about traveling and even the small, relatively intimate gatherings. This has public health experts worried.

Dr. Amanda Castel, an epidemiologist at George Washington University, says she believes that colder weather and pandemic fatigue are to blame for the recent surge in cases regionally and nation-wide.

She says this has localities walking a very fine line between recognizing the stress that eight months of restrictions has had on the public and the knowledge that the region very well could be headed to a peak in the pandemic.

“[Health departments]don’t want to necessarily restrict movement and go back to stay at home orders. But, on the other hand, we are seeing that we’re trending in the wrong direction.”

She anticipates that the region will see a spike in cases after Thanksgiving in much the same way what happened after Memorial Day and July 4.

But it could actually be worse.

“The problem is that we’re starting at a higher baseline,” she says. “The overall number of cases, the spread, and the transmission could be much greater than it was over the summer in our area if people decide to get together.”

Dr. Michael Knight, a professor of medicine at George Washington University, also cautions against traveling outside of the region for the holiday. “If a large percentage of our population travels away for the holiday and then comes back, a lot of the work that we’ve done to limit the spread [of the virus] may be undone,” he says.

If individuals do decide to travel, Knight suggests a mode of transportation that limits the amount of time that puts an individual in close contact with others. “A flight that is not packed… with a middle seat empty and a 45 minute flight versus being on a train for five hours, I’m going to go with the shorter amount of time,” he says.

Castel says that if people decide to gather with those outside of your household, self-control needs to be practiced. This means keeping masks on, staying six feet apart, and, sadly, avoiding hugs.

“Too often we’re hearing about people who get together with family or friends and it just becomes old familiar,” Castel says, “You let down your guard and stop practicing the things that we know can prevent transmission.”

For her part, Castel says she’s forgoing the big Thanksgiving gathering this year and having dinner only with her husband and two children. “We’ll probably have a family Zoom and go around the virtual room and give thanks,” she says, “And hope that we get back to a normal Thanksgiving next year.”

Ryan Presbrey says his family is sad that he isn’t coming home for Thanksgiving, but completely supportive of the decision. With it just being him, Natalie, and Willie at home this year, he’s looking to alter a few holiday traditions. “I might not be having a big turkey, but maybe I’ll have, like, a small Cornish game hen or something,” he says.

Lauren Durkee is also trying to make the best of it. She and her husband Colin are still going to have their scotch sours, like they do with family every year. The morning after Thanksgiving, stuffing cakes will still be fried up.

Nonetheless, she admits it’s heartbreaking to miss the holidays with her family. They’ve already made the decision to stay home for Christmas, too.

“It won’t be the same because we have a big family. It’s a lot of fun to get together, play games, laugh,” Durkee says. “And, you know, we need it more than ever this year. But we just can’t do it.”

The alternative is, of course, worse: Spreading the coronavirus to loved ones and the community.

Says Durkee, “You feel like maybe it won’t be our family, but that’s what every family thinks.”

Margaret Barthel contributed reporting to this story.