There is no doubt that the crimes which have taken place in the District over the past few days are distressing. They are upsetting in the details of their commission, for the circumstances of the assailants and their victims, and because the conditions of life in communities across the country make such crimes a probabilistic inevitability. We should all be shocked by homicide, no matter where or how it occurs.

It is a sign of our very good fortune, however, that these tragedies have been greeted by such an uproar over the state of our public safety. No one could recall the ugly years of the early 90s, when men and women lost their lives at rates twice and three times those today, and consider our city’s decline imminent. Our expectations have changed, and that is a good thing. Tens of thousands of people enter the city not only to work by day, but to walk the streets and enjoy our entertainment at night.

While it is an indisputable fact that crime rates in the District remain significantly below the levels experienced in the 1990s, it nonetheless seems that many people in the city feel less secure than they used to. There is likely a very good explanation for this. We have noted in our monthly crime reports how Police districts one and three–where new construction and development, increasing property values, population growth, and growth in income disparity have been particularly intense–have seen increases in criminal activity this year compared with last year (and compared with much of the rest of Washington, which has seen declines in most crime numbers this year). In today’s Post, Courtland Milloy talks to Chief Ramsey about how new arrivals often play into criminals’ hands:

“We’ve got a lot of new people who are not accustomed to living in an urban environment,” Ramsey said. “They’ll park blocks away from a restaurant or a nightclub, then come out in the early morning hours, cut through side streets and become easy prey.”

Ramsey goes on to discuss how lax juvenile sentencing and frequent recidivism provide a steady stream of assailants on the streets.