The election of Democrat Jim Webb as the junior Senator from Virginia has given political spectators another chance to speculate on what particular shade of indigo the Commonwealth appears to be these days. Webb’s victory was hardly a blowout, but considered alongside the last two gubernatorial campaigns and the swelling population and influence of Northern Virginia, it’s not hard to imagine that Virginia’s statewide tendencies are only going to get bluer. Virginia hasn’t become Massachusetts overnight, but the GOP will certainly have to think carefully in the future when choosing candidates for office.

This makes the status of Congressman Tom Davis (R-VA) vis-a-vis the 2008 elections awfully compelling. Today, the Examiner suggests that Representative Davis has much to be glad about in the midterm election results; most notably that the time he’ll save not dragging Jose Canseco before his committee can now be used to lay the groundwork for a Senate bid should current five-termer John Warner decide to call it quits. So far, Davis has expressed his hope that Senator Warner continue to serve in the upper house of Congress, but given George Allen’s interest in macaca running again in 2008 should the seat be available (and his status as national punchline), Davis has to feel good about his chances.

But such a decision could generate a revealing series of campaigns in Virginia, particularly if Allen does decide to give the Senate another shot. It would be fascinating to see how Davis and Allen might attempt to distinguish themselves in a primary, particularly given the fact that the victor would need to court at least some voters from metropolitan portions of the state. Can a statewide candidate sincerely cater to conservative voters in the state without wholly alienating the Washington suburbs? If Davis were to walk away with the nomination, it might make for a test of just how Democratic these purple suburbs have become. Have they truly shifted left, or are they content to vote for Republicans, so long as they look after metropolitan interests and don’t openly toss around racial and ethnic slurs? It’s not at all clear that Virginia has abandoned conservatism, especially of the social sort. Davis might just fit the mold of the new Virginia politician perfectly: pro-transit and development, but squishy on meat and potatoes values issues like immigration and abortion.

Or so it seems now. But two years is an eternity in electoral politics, and nearly anything could happen in that time. National moods could shift. Senator Warner could decide to run again as a Democrat. The Green Party could carve out an unassailable electoral niche. As long as we’re speculating, however, we’ll put the question to you. Given an entirely hypothetical field of candidates for Virginia Senator, how would you vote today?

Picture from tomdavis.house.gov.