Metro proposed a budget Tuesday with service cuts officials say would make the transit system “unrecognizable” and have a devastating economic impact on the region.  On the table are across-the-board service cuts, including the closure of 10 Metro stations, earlier station closing times, the elimination of nearly half of all current Metrobus routes, fare hikes, layoffs, and salary and hiring freezes.

Metro officials have been sounding the alarm about a looming $750 million budget shortfall and a resulting “transit death spiral” for months, but this is the first budget proposal detailing what a worst case scenario would actually look like.

WMATA officials have been calling on regional leaders to address the financial shortfall for the 2025 fiscal year with increased subsidies (the transit agency does not have dedicated funding, and depends on contributions from D.C., Maryland, and Virginia, as well as fare revenue and federal money). Metro now says it is aiming to secure an additional $665 million in subsidies from D.C., Maryland, and Virginia, which represents a 40%-56% increase over previous years.

“Failure is not an option,” WMATA CEO and General Manager Randy Clarke told reporters ahead of the full proposal’s release. “A healthy Metro is needed if we’re going to have a good DMV.” He added that he has “yet to meet a stakeholder” who finds the reduced services “acceptable.”

“Today’s proposal is a worst-case scenario in which DC, Maryland, and Virginia do nothing else between now and April, when the WMATA board votes on next year’s budget,” Ward 6 Councilmember Charles Allen, head of the D.C. Council’s transportation committee, said in a statement Tuesday. “Regional leaders have been in conversations for some time, and I’m confident we all agree that this budget can never become reality. That level of service would fail workers, seniors, students, businesses, and residents.”

Clarke said he’s “cautiously optimistic” Metro will get needed funds. But the budget proposal released this week must reflect the money Metro has, not what he’s hoping for, he said.

The system’s funding also hinges on upcoming legislative and budget sessions in D.C., Maryland, and Virginia, which won’t wrap up until the spring. Timing will be tricky; by law, Metro needs an approved and balanced budget by April for the 2025 fiscal year, which begins July 1, 2024.

Dire economic consequences

Under the budget proposal, Metro is proposing the closure of 10 Metrorail stations, reduced frequency across rail and bus lines, earlier station closing times, and the elimination of nearly half of the system’s bus routes. These changes would go into effect July 1.

WMATA officials said they haven’t yet identified which Metro stations would be closed, but say they would opt for those with lower ridership and avoid shutting adjacent stations.

All trains would stop running at 10 p.m. daily; currently, Metro service runs until midnight Sundays through Thursdays and 1 a.m. Fridays and Saturdays. Trains would run every 15 minutes on weekdays and every 20 minutes on weekends. (Currently, wait times are about six minutes or shorter for 81% of trips — the reduced frequency would mean only about 10% of trips would meet that standard.)

There would also be “turnbacks” on the Red and Silver Lines, shortening both routes. On the Red Line, one train would run the entire route from Glenmont to Shady Grove, followed by a train running part of the route, from Grosvenor-Strathmore to Silver Spring. Stations excluded from that shorter route would be the end stations Glenmont and Shady Grove, as well as Rockville, North Bethesda, Wheaton, Twinbrook, and Forest Glen.

On the Silver Line, all trains would stop running at Stadium-Armory, and riders going to subsequent stations (Benning Rd to Downtown Largo) would need to change to the Blue Line.

Metrobus riders are likely to feel the biggest impact. Sixty-seven of its 135 lines – nearly half – will be completely eliminated. Of the surviving lines, 41 will have reduced service. Service will be cut back by about a third each in D.C., Maryland, and Virginia. Nearly anyone who uses the bus will feel the effects, officials said, with less frequent or no service on routes.

In addition to longer wait times, fewer routes, and more crowded buses and trains, Metro’s chief warned cutbacks would lead to dire economic consequences for the region. He noted that hundreds of thousands of D.C. area residents rely on WMATA to get to work, attend late night events like sports games, and to get around the region more generally.

Many public school students in D.C. also rely on public transportation because they don’t live within walking distance of their schools and the District doesn’t provide school buses. Clarke said service cuts would make getting to school more difficult just as D.C. schools are trying to recover from high chronic absenteeism and truancy rates in recent years.

Paying more for less 

In addition to cuts, fares would also increase across the board. Clarke noted that customers will be paying more for lower quality service.

Fares would go up by 20% on both Metrorail and buses. Currently, riders pay $2 to $6 to ride the train on weekdays, with a base of $2 and an additional $0.40 per mile after an initial three miles. On weekends and late nights, riders pay $2. Reduced fares – for seniors and people with disabilities – range from $1 to $3 on weekdays and are a dollar per trip on weekends and late nights.

Under the new budget proposal, most Metro riders would pay from 40 cents to $1.20 more per ride on weekdays. Reduced fares would be $1.20 to $3.60. Weekend trips would be $2.40 for most riders and $1.20 for reduced fares.

Bus fares would also increase, from $2 to $2.40, and from $1 to $1.20 for reduced fares.

The fare hikes would go into effect July 1, following an increase that went into effect this past summer.

As part of its effort to boost revenue from fares, Metro has introduced a number of measures to curb fare evasion, including beginning to install higher fare gates and fare evasion fees. Fares historically have made up about 36% of Metro’s operating budget. However, Clarke said fares alone are not the key to balancing the budget and that it is “a myth that if we collected every fare we wouldn’t have this problem.”

Layoffs, wage and hiring freezes

There’ll be a freeze on wage increases if jurisdictional funding does not come through for all WMATA employees – including unionized and non-unionized staff, as well as top-level executives. Wage increase freezes for unionized employees will not take effect until ongoing collective bargaining agreements with unions expire. The current contract with ATU Local 689 expires June 30, 2024. However, a wage increase freeze is in effect starting January for non-unionized workers until jurisdictional funding is secured.

Those measures, officials say, will save Metro $38 million.

In January, a hiring freeze will also go into effect, and Metro officials say they’ll have to lay off nearly 2,300 people unless additional funding is secured. If layoffs proceed, they would take effect in the summer. Fewer staff will mean less frequent and reliable service and lower quality maintenance of the system.

Metro had announced the potential layoffs and hiring freeze earlier this year, but did not announce the wage increase freeze until this week.

The threat of layoffs, Clarke acknowledged, is not good for worker morale.

“The people who work here and the customers we serve are going to be very significantly impacted by this budget proposal,” Clarke said. “It’s very hard to put out a budget this way knowing that these types of cuts are on the table.”

In a statement, ATU Local 689 said it was “shocked and dismayed by the stunning and draconian proposed cuts” and that “cutting metrobus routes, shuttering metrorail stations, and laying off thousands of workers is not a viable blueprint for a functioning mass transit system.”

The union added that the budget should serve as a “wake up call,” and that the three jurisdictions need to “do their part” to save the system.

Subsidy increases, cost savings

Metro’s funding is made up of annual subsidies from D.C., Maryland, and Virginia, as well as fares and federal dollars.

To avert service cuts, fare increases, and to avoid Metro having to draw funds from its capital budget — normally reserved for repairs and modernization projects — Metro will need subsidy increases of $275.3 million from D.C., $209 million from Maryland, and $180 million from Virginia. Those amount to 56%, 40%, and 52% increases for D.C., Maryland, and Virginia, which already have proposed  budget allocations of $495 million, $519 million, and $348 million respectively.

Maryland and Virginia both have laws capping Metro subsidy increases at 3%, and Clarke has warned that unless those restrictions are removed, the drastic service cuts and layoffs outlined Monday will be inevitable.

If each of the region’s three jurisdictions do meet Metro’s additional funding requests, the additional subsidies totaling $665 million would go a long way toward closing the current $750 million shortfall. However, it’s unclear if they are a position to do so. Maryland announced a $3.3 billion transportation budget shortfall last week, and both D.C. and Virginia are also dealing with lean financial times.

Without the region’s additional funds, Metro would need to draw $253 million from its capital budget earmarked for repairs and modernization, a strategy officials say would negatively impact the system’s safety and performance and jeopardize projects like zero-emission buses and the 8000-series fleet of the future.

Officials also say they’re saving $50 million through “administrative efficiencies,” reducing consulting services, improved asset management, and “digital transformation.” An additional $95 million in savings will roll over from the current budget.

This story was updated to remove a misattributed quote and with a statement from ATU Local 689.